03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Over 2.5 Goals |
44.3% |
56.5% |
12 pts under
|
| Draw |
26.8% |
31.2% |
4 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Key Stats
🔥
AS Roma are on a 5-game winning streak
01The read
Analysing Fenerbahce vs AS Roma: Who Wins?
Too close to call on the numbers. Fenerbahce 45%, AS Roma 40%, the draw live at 27%.
Fenerbahce slight edge (45%) | One side to keep the other out (71%) | Predicted: 1-0
Confidence
★★★★★
The bookmakers open Fenerbahce at @2.50 for this Champions League tie, with AS Roma out at @2.75.
Our verdict
A razor-thin margin: Fenerbahce at 45%, but the draw sits at 27%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key facts
😶
Blunt Attack
Fenerbahce fail to score in 50% of their games. Creating chances has been a real problem
🔥
Travelling Hot
AS Roma bring a 5-game winning run into this one
▸ Form & goals
Goals are a tough one to call here. Fenerbahce are scoring 1.5 a game (2.5 of those at home) and AS Roma manage 3.0 (3.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 44%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Both teams scoring is unlikely here (29%).
Goals have been hard to come by for both sides in context. Only 25% of Fenerbahce's home games produce three or more goals, and just 0% of AS Roma's away fixtures.
▸ Team news & context
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
AS Roma are similarly well-balanced. 3.0 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. This has the makings of a tight, tactical game between two organised sides.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 0-2 (11%) and 0-1 (10%).
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 AS Roma · xG
For: 1.68/g
Against: 0.92/g
⚠️ Outscoring xG by 0.42/g, possibly running hot
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Fenerbahce vs AS Roma Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Fenerbahce Win |
@2.50
|
44.9% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.25
|
26.8% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
AS Roma Win |
@2.75
|
40.3% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.85
|
44.3% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.91
|
55.7% |
William Hill |
05The numbers
Fenerbahce vs AS Roma Team Stats
Fenerbahce
Played
4
Record
1W-1D-2L
Goals F/A
6/5
Avg Goals Scored
1.50
Home Record
1W-1D-0L
AS Roma
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
0-2
11.0%
0-1
10.2%
1-1
9.2%
0-0
4.8%
1-0
4.3%
2-0
1.9%