Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco Predictions & Odds
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Paris Saint Germain have taken 8 points from their last five; Monaco have lost their last two. Form gives little away going into this Ligue 1 tie.
Both sides are prolific in front of goal. Paris Saint Germain average 2.0 per game and Monaco chip in with 2.0. Expect an open, attacking contest. Monaco could be in for a similar cool-off. 2.0 goals a game against chance quality worth only 1.7. Hot finishing has been covering for the fact they aren't creating that much. The gap in chance quality is clear: Paris Saint Germain come out at +1.1 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to +0.2. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Paris Saint Germain create chances worth 2.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.0), leaving them +1.1 a game on the balance. Monaco create 1.7 (giving up 1.5) for a balance of +0.2. The underlying numbers clearly favour Paris Saint Germain. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Monaco are also scoring more than their chances suggest (2.0 goals vs chance quality of 1.7). Both runs could cool off at once. A worry for Paris Saint Germain: the chances they're creating lately are worth 1.7 a game, well below their 2.2 season figure. The attacking output has dipped.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Paris Saint Germain are scoring 2.0 a game (2.0 of those at home) and Monaco manage 2.0 (2.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 50%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Both teams scoring is unlikely here (29%).
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 53% of Paris Saint Germain's home games and 71% of Monaco's away matches.
Paris Saint Germain are all-out attack: 2.0 goals a game, but they leak 1.3 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Monaco, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Monaco have goals in them (2.0 per game) but their record at the back (2.3 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end. The chance data suggests Paris Saint Germain will create openings. The chances they create are worth 2.2 a game and Monaco give up chances worth 1.5 on the road. Expect Paris Saint Germain to see plenty of the ball.
In the last 10 meetings: Paris Saint Germain have won 5, Monaco 3, with 2 draws. These fixtures average 3.7 goals per game. 7 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Both teams have scored in most of their recent meetings, so there's a good chance both find the net again. Recent results: Paris Saint Germain 1-3 Monaco, Paris Saint Germain 2-2 Monaco, Monaco 2-3 Paris Saint Germain, Monaco 1-0 Paris Saint Germain.
Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (9%) and 1-1 (8%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Paris Saint Germain Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Monaco Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco kicks off on Friday 4 September 2026 at 20:05 in the Ligue 1.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 28.8% probability.