01The read
Analysing Newcastle vs West Brom: Who Wins?
Newcastle 62%, the draw 23%, West Brom 16%. That's the shape of this one.
Newcastle have taken 7 points from their last five; West Brom have won three of their last five. Form gives little away going into this EFL Cup tie.
Our pick
Tracking this league
Our PickNewcastle to win at @1.36. Model probability 62% vs implied 74%. The market is 12pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Key facts
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 67% of Newcastle's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 65% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Newcastle create chances worth 1.6 a game (and give up chances worth 1.7), leaving them -0.1 a game on the balance. West Brom create 1.6 (giving up 1.0) for a balance of +0.7. On the quality of chances, West Brom look the stronger side. they create more and give up less.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Newcastle are scoring 1.3 a game (1.3 of those at home) and West Brom manage 2.0 (2.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 65%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 50%.
▸ Team news & context
West Brom are similarly well-balanced. 2.0 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. This has the makings of a tight, tactical game between two organised sides.
In the last 10 meetings: Newcastle have won 4, West Brom 3, with 3 draws. These fixtures average 2.0 goals per game. 3 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: West Brom 0-0 Newcastle, Newcastle 2-1 West Brom, West Brom 2-3 Newcastle.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Newcastle HT
1.80
-
Draw HT
2.60
-
West Brom HT
6.00
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 Newcastle · xG
For: 1.56/g
Against: 1.67/g
📊 West Brom · xG
For: 1.63/g
Against: 0.95/g
💎 Underscoring xG by 0.33/g, value possible
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Newcastle vs West Brom Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Newcastle Win |
@1.36
|
61.7% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@4.50
|
22.5% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
West Brom Win |
@7.00
|
15.9% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.80
|
49.6% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@1.91
|
50.4% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.57
|
64.7% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.45
|
35.3% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.17
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@5.00
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.38
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.60
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Newcastle vs West Brom Head to Head
4 Home Wins
3 Draws
3 Away Wins
2.0
Avg Goals
4/10
BTTS
3/10
Over 2.5
2021-03-07
Newcastle 0-0 West Brom
2020-12-12
Newcastle 2-1 West Brom
2020-03-03
Newcastle 3-2 West Brom
2018-04-28
Newcastle 0-1 West Brom
2017-11-28
Newcastle 2-2 West Brom
2016-02-06
Newcastle 1-0 West Brom
2015-12-28
Newcastle 0-1 West Brom
2015-05-09
Newcastle 1-1 West Brom
2014-11-09
Newcastle 2-0 West Brom
2014-01-01
Newcastle 0-1 West Brom
Full Newcastle vs West Brom head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
5.8%
3-1
1.9%
3-2
1.6%
3-0
1.2%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Under 4.5 goals
85%
@1.24
Betano
-
Newcastle under 3.5 goals
85%
@1.22
Betano
-
Over 2 goals
84%
@1.24
BetVictor
-
West Brom under 1.5 goals
83%
@1.24
Unibet
-
Under 12.5 corners
82%
@1.22
Unibet
-
Under 2 first half goals
81%
@1.24
Marathon Bet
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
80%
@1.30
Betano
-
Over 1 second half goals
79%
@1.27
Marathon Bet
-
Over 7.5 corners
79%
@1.27
Unibet
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
78%
@1.34
Betano
-
Newcastle under 3 goals
78%
@1.29
Marathon Bet
-
Newcastle to win
75%
@1.40
1xBet
Build a slip from these markets →