Player Form
Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.
J
J. Hall
1+ Shots on Target
58% (model)
J. Hall averages 0.95 SoT/match (21 apps), away vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
J
J. Ruvalcaba
1+ Shots on Target
53% (model)
J. Ruvalcaba averages 0.85 SoT/match (20 apps), away vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
C
C. Cowell
1+ Shots on Target
51% (model)
C. Cowell averages 0.79 SoT/match (19 apps), away vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
P
P. Rothrock
1+ Shots on Target
50% (model)
P. Rothrock averages 0.63 SoT/match (19 apps), home vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
A
A. Rusnák
1+ Shots on Target
50% (model)
A. Rusnák averages 0.63 SoT/match (19 apps), home vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
Projections from club-season form only, informational, never recorded or graded, and outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
01The read
New York Red Bulls in Cruise Control. Can Seattle Sounders Stop the Rot?
Seattle Sounders 51%, the draw 21%, New York Red Bulls 28%. That's the shape of this one.
Seattle Sounders have lost five in a row; New York Red Bulls have lost four of their last six. Neither side arrives in rhythm for this MLS tie.
A. Rusnák has been Seattle Sounders's spearhead, with 3 goals and 6 assists in 19 appearances, averaging 0.63 shots on target per game. J. Hall has been New York Red Bulls's main threat, with 9 goals and 3 assists in 21 appearances, averaging 0.95 shots on target per game.
Our pick
Tracking this league
Our PickBoth teams to score at @1.44. Model probability 69% vs implied 69%. Priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Key men
A
A. Rusnák
Seattle Sounders · Midfielder
3 goals · 6 assists in 19 apps
0.6 shots on target a game
J
J. Hall
New York Red Bulls · Attacker
9 goals · 3 assists in 21 apps
1.0 shots on target a game
Key facts
🚫
Poor Away Form
New York Red Bulls have won just 2 of 17 on the road. Travelling support won't expect much
🎯
Better Chances
Seattle Sounders come out at +0.8 a game on chance quality vs New York Red Bulls's -0.4. A clear gap underneath the results
🔥
Chances Flowing
Seattle Sounders creating chances worth 2.1 a game over their last 5. High-quality openings at will
📉
Home Wobble
Seattle Sounders arrive off 5 straight defeats. The home crowd will need something early
▸ Form & goals
The travelling New York Red Bulls fans arrive with a spring in their step, and rightly so. recent form reads D-L-L-W-L-L. That D-L-L-W-L-L away form is genuinely impressive. Seattle Sounders have been wobbling (L-L-L-L-L) 5 losses in a row. But home crowds have a way of dragging a side through, and Seattle Sounders will fancy that their own supporters can be the difference when it matters. Interestingly, Seattle Sounders have been poor at home recently while New York Red Bulls travel well. the visitors' away form is superior to the hosts' home record. A concern for New York Red Bulls: they're giving up chances worth 2.0 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.6 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Seattle Sounders create chances worth 2.0 a game (and give up chances worth 1.1), leaving them +0.8 a game on the balance. New York Red Bulls create 1.2 (giving up 1.6) for a balance of -0.4. The underlying numbers clearly favour Seattle Sounders. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. New York Red Bulls's defence is giving up chances. Worth 2.0 a game over their last 5 vs 1.6 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Seattle Sounders are scoring 1.8 a game (2.3 of those at home) and New York Red Bulls manage 1.4 (0.7 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 67%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. There's a good chance both teams find the net, and we make it 69%. Seattle Sounders score in 78% of their games and New York Red Bulls in 74%, and neither back line is tight enough to bank on a clean sheet.
▸ Team news & context
Seattle Sounders are all-out attack: 1.8 goals a game, but they leak 1.5 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at New York Red Bulls, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Seattle Sounders HT
2.20
-
Draw HT
2.60
-
New York Red Bulls HT
3.60
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Seattle Sounders · xG
For: 1.97/g
Against: 1.14/g
📊 New York Red Bulls · xG
For: 1.21/g
Against: 1.58/g
💎 Underscoring xG by 0.31/g, value possible
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Seattle Sounders vs New York Red Bulls Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Seattle Sounders Win |
@1.75
|
51.1% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@4.20
|
20.6% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
New York Red Bulls Win |
@3.50
|
28.2% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.44
|
69.1% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.62
|
30.9% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.44
|
67.4% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.90
|
32.6% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.12
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@6.25
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.00
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.80
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Seattle Sounders vs New York Red Bulls Team Stats
Seattle Sounders
Position
5
Played
37
Record
16W-10D-11L
Goals F/A
65/55
Avg Goals Scored
1.80
Points
55
Overall Form
LLLLL
Home Form
LLLLL
Home Record
11W-6D-1L
New York Red Bulls
Played
34
Record
12W-7D-15L
Goals F/A
48/47
Avg Goals Scored
1.40
Overall Form
DLLWLL
Away Record
2W-4D-11L
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
8.8%
3-1
4.7%
3-2
3.4%
3-0
3.2%
4-1
1.9%
4-2
1.4%
4-0
1.3%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Seattle Sounders or New York Red Bulls (double chance)
85%
@1.25
Bet365
-
Over 1 second half goals
84%
@1.19
Marathon Bet
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
83%
@1.28
Betano
-
Seattle Sounders or Draw (double chance)
82%
@1.26
Betano
-
New York Red Bulls over 0.5 goals
82%
@1.28
Bet365
-
New York Red Bulls under 2 goals
82%
@1.22
Marathon Bet
-
Under 4.5 goals
79%
@1.34
Betano
-
Under 2 first half goals
78%
@1.33
BetVictor
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
74%
@1.44
Betano
-
Over 2.5 goals
72%
@1.45
Betano
-
Both teams to score: Yes
72%
@1.44
William Hill
-
Under 4 goals
71%
@1.47
Betano
Build a slip from these markets →