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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 42.3% | 53.5% | 11 pts under |
| Both Teams to Score | 48.6% | 58.8% | 10 pts under |
| Levante Win | 24.3% | 34.5% | 10 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
The model makes Real Betis 46% favourites here. Levante carry the 24% upset.
Levante (17th, 1 pts) face the unenviable task of hosting in-form Real Betis (4th, 6 pts). The gap in quality should tell, but home advantage can be a great leveller.
Too close to call with any conviction. Real Betis edge it at 46% but a draw (28%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Crucially, Levante are in strong home form while Real Betis are struggling away from home. the venue factor amplifies the form gap. Season-long, Real Betis average 3.0 points per game compared to Levante's 0.5. that gap in consistency is hard to ignore. The gap in chance quality is clear: Levante come out at +0.6 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.1. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Levante create chances worth 1.8 a game (and give up chances worth 1.2), leaving them +0.6 a game on the balance. Real Betis create 1.2 (giving up 1.3) for a balance of -0.1. The underlying numbers clearly favour Levante. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones.
Levante average 1.3 goals per game and Real Betis manage 1.0. Combined that's just 2.3. We make it only 42% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 49%.
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 53% of Levante's home games and 79% of Real Betis's away matches.
Levante need points desperately. Sitting 17th in the table, every match feels like a cup final now.
In the last 10 meetings: Levante have won 4, Real Betis 5, with 1 draw. These fixtures average 4.3 goals per game. 9 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Both teams have scored in most of their recent meetings, so there's a good chance both find the net again. Recent results: Real Betis 2-1 Levante, Levante 2-2 Real Betis, Levante 2-4 Real Betis, Real Betis 3-1 Levante.
Most likely scorelines: 0-1 (11%) and 0-2 (7%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Levante Win | @3.25 | 24.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.30 | 27.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Real Betis Win | @2.20 | 46.2% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.75 | 48.6% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.05 | 51.4% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.91 | 42.3% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.94 | 57.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.28 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.75 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.40 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.35 | - | Bet365 |
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Combined 3.83 · £5 returns £19.14
Our model makes Real Betis the favourite with a 46.2% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Levante @ 3.25, Draw @ 3.30, Real Betis @ 2.20. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Levante vs Real Betis kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 16:00 in the La Liga.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 48.6% probability.
Our top prediction is Real Betis to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.