Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
Get the model's verified verdict on Sevilla (and any team you follow) emailed the moment odds drop. Free, no spam, one-click unsubscribe.
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Sevilla have lost their last two; Atletico Madrid have lost three of their last five. Form gives little away going into this La Liga tie.
Sevilla's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Sevilla create chances worth 0.9 a game (and give up chances worth 1.0), leaving them -0.1 a game on the balance. Atletico Madrid create 1.5 (giving up 1.9) for a balance of -0.4. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.
Sevilla average 1.2 goals per game and Atletico Madrid manage 1.3. Combined that's just 2.5. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
Both teams score in 58% of Sevilla's home games and 58% of Atletico Madrid's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%) and 1-2 (9%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Sevilla Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Atletico Madrid Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 20:30 in the La Liga.