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Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
There's barely anything between these two. Levante (9th, 4 pts) and Athletic Club (12th, 3 pts) meet in a fixture that could shape the La Liga table.
Athletic Club are no pushovers away from home. W1 D0 L1 from 2 away trips, scoring 1.0 per game on the road. Levante (W1 D0 L0 at home) can't afford to take this lightly. Levante's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf. The gap in chance quality is clear: Levante come out at +0.6 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.1. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Levante create chances worth 1.8 a game (and give up chances worth 1.2), leaving them +0.6 a game on the balance. Athletic Club create 1.0 (giving up 1.2) for a balance of -0.1. The underlying numbers clearly favour Levante. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Levante are scoring 1.7 a game (5.0 of those at home) and Athletic Club manage 1.0 (1.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 55%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 50%.
Both teams score in 53% of Levante's home games and 53% of Athletic Club's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Neither side has much to play for in the grand scheme. no European places within reach and relegation isn't a concern. That can make for an unpredictable game with less pressure on both sides.
In the last 10 meetings: Levante have won 0, Athletic Club 7, with 3 draws. These fixtures average 2.7 goals per game. 5 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Both teams have scored in most of their recent meetings, so there's a good chance both find the net again. Recent results: Athletic Club 4-2 Levante, Levante 0-2 Athletic Club, Athletic Club 3-1 Levante, Levante 0-0 Athletic Club.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (11%) and 2-1 (9%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Levante Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Athletic Club Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Levante vs Athletic Club kicks off on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 20:30 in the La Liga.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 50.4% probability.