Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna Predictions & Odds
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Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Atletico Madrid have won three of their last five; Osasuna have taken 7 points from their last five. Form gives little away going into this La Liga tie.
The gap in chance quality is clear: Osasuna come out at +0.3 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.4. that's a real edge in the quality of chances. A concern for Osasuna: they're giving up chances worth 1.4 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.1 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Atletico Madrid create chances worth 1.5 a game (and give up chances worth 1.9), leaving them -0.4 a game on the balance. Osasuna create 1.3 (giving up 1.1) for a balance of +0.3. On the quality of chances, Osasuna look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. Atletico Madrid are trending upwards. Their chances are worth 1.8 a game over the last 5 vs 1.5 for the season. They're in a real attacking groove. Osasuna's defence is giving up chances. Worth 1.4 a game over their last 5 vs 1.1 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
Atletico Madrid average 1.6 goals per game and Osasuna manage 1.0. Combined that's just 2.6. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
Both teams score in 47% of Atletico Madrid's home games and 37% of Osasuna's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Osasuna prefer to keep things tight (0.3 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Atletico Madrid against this setup.
In the last 10 meetings: Atletico Madrid have won 8, Osasuna 2, with 0 draws. These fixtures average 2.2 goals per game. 4 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Osasuna 1-2 Atletico Madrid, Atletico Madrid 1-0 Osasuna, Osasuna 2-0 Atletico Madrid, Atletico Madrid 1-0 Osasuna.
Most likely scorelines: 0-1 (14%) and 1-1 (13%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Atletico Madrid Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Osasuna Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna kicks off on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 18:00 in the La Liga.