03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Leeds Win |
28.9% |
41.8% |
13 pts under
|
| Both Teams to Score |
53.1% |
61.0% |
8 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
47.0% |
54.6% |
8 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
01The read
Can Brentford Get the Job Done at Leeds?
The model makes Brentford 43% favourites here. Leeds carry the 29% upset.
Brentford slight edge (43%) | Predicted: 1-2
Confidence
★★★★★
Leeds (9th, 3 pts) host Brentford (2nd, 3 pts) in the Premier League. Both sides will be targeting three points here.
Our verdict
A razor-thin margin: Brentford at 43%, but the draw sits at 27%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
Where's the value?
Our model spots value here: Brentford to win at @2.75 (our model: 43%, bookmakers imply: 36%). A 6% edge over the market.
Key facts
🤝
Draw Merchants
6 draws from 10 meetings. Stalemates are the pattern here
▸ Form & goals
A concern for Brentford: they're giving up chances worth 2.0 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.6 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Leeds create chances worth 1.4 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them +0.1 a game on the balance. Brentford create 1.5 (giving up 1.6) for a balance of -0.2. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. Brentford's defence is giving up chances. Worth 2.0 a game over their last 5 vs 1.6 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Leeds are scoring 1.0 a game (1.0 of those at home) and Brentford manage 3.0 (3.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 47%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 53%. Two or more goals at @1.28 is a steadier alternative for accas.
Both teams score in 53% of Leeds's home games and 47% of Brentford's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
▸ Team news & context
Brentford have goals in them (3.0 per game) but their record at the back (1.1 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
In the last 10 meetings: Leeds have won 2, Brentford 2, with 6 draws. These fixtures average 2.3 goals per game. 3 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Leeds 0-0 Brentford, Brentford 1-1 Leeds, Leeds 0-0 Brentford, Brentford 5-2 Leeds.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (10%) and 1-2 (10%).
First Half Result
-
Leeds HT
2.90
-
Draw HT
2.20
-
Brentford HT
3.20
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Leeds · xG
For: 1.43/g
Against: 1.37/g
📊 Brentford · xG
For: 1.46/g
Against: 1.61/g
💎 Underscoring xG by 0.36/g, value possible
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Leeds vs Brentford Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Leeds Win |
@2.50
|
28.9% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.30
|
26.5% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Brentford Win |
@2.75
|
42.6% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.70
|
53.1% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.10
|
46.9% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.91
|
47.0% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.98
|
53.0% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.28
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@3.85
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@3.40
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.37
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Leeds vs Brentford Team Stats
Leeds United FC
Position
9
Played
1
Record
1W-0D-0L
Goals F/A
1/0
Avg Goals Scored
1.00
Points
3
Overall Form
WLWDW
Home Form
WWW
Home Record
0W-0D-0L
Brentford FC
Position
2
Played
1
Record
1W-0D-0L
Goals F/A
3/0
Avg Goals Scored
3.00
Points
3
Overall Form
WDDLW
Away Form
DLL
Away Record
0W-0D-0L
Leeds vs Brentford Head to Head
2 Home Wins
6 Draws
2 Away Wins
2.3
Avg Goals
6/10
BTTS
3/10
Over 2.5
2026-03-21
Leeds 0-0 Brentford
2025-12-14
Leeds 1-1 Brentford
2023-01-22
Leeds 0-0 Brentford
2022-09-03
Leeds 2-5 Brentford
2022-05-22
Leeds 2-1 Brentford
2021-12-05
Leeds 2-2 Brentford
2020-02-11
Leeds 1-1 Brentford
2019-08-21
Leeds 1-0 Brentford
2019-04-22
Leeds 0-2 Brentford
2018-10-06
Leeds 1-1 Brentford
Full Leeds vs Brentford head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-1
9.9%
1-2
9.9%
0-1
9.3%
0-2
9.3%
1-3
6.6%
0-3
6.2%
2-1
5.3%
2-2
5.3%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
85%
@1.22
Betano
-
Brentford under 2 goals
85%
@1.18
Marathon Bet
-
Under 13.5 corners
85%
@1.18
Unibet
-
Brentford under 7.5 corners
85%
@1.18
Unibet
-
Leeds under 7.5 corners
84%
@1.19
Unibet
-
Over 0.5 second half goals
83%
@1.24
Betano
-
Leeds under 2 goals
83%
@1.22
Marathon Bet
-
Over 1.5 goals
80%
@1.30
Betano
-
Leeds over 0.5 goals
80%
@1.29
Betano
-
Brentford over 0.5 goals
78%
@1.31
1xBet
-
Leeds or Brentford (double chance)
78%
@1.35
1xBet
-
Under 12.5 corners
77%
@1.30
Unibet
Build a slip from these markets →