03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Both Teams to Score |
51.8% |
62.1% |
10 pts under
|
| FC Porto Win |
19.4% |
26.1% |
7 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
58.9% |
61.7% |
3 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Match Stats
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
-
Over 11.5 Match Corners
47% (model)
Corners: FC Porto avg 6.1 for/4.7 against, Manchester City avg 8.8 for/3.3 against → expected 11.4 match corners
-
Over 3.5 Match Cards
52% (model)
Cards: FC Porto avg 2.5/game, Manchester City avg 1.3/game → expected 3.8 match cards
-
Over 22.5 Match Fouls
55% (model)
Fouls: FC Porto avg 12.3/game, Manchester City avg 11.0/game → expected 23.3 match fouls
-
Over 26.5 Match Shots
79% (model)
Shots: FC Porto avg 14.7/game, Manchester City avg 16.3/game → expected 31.0 match shots
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Key Stats
🛡
FC Porto have kept a clean sheet in 75% of games this season
🔥
FC Porto are on a 5-game winning streak
01The read
Analysing FC Porto vs Manchester City: Who Wins?
FC Porto have won 5 on the bounce. The model prices this one at 19%.
Manchester City slight edge (54%) | Predicted: 1-2
Confidence
★★★★★
FC Porto have won five straight; Manchester City have won three of their last five. The momentum is with the hosts going into this Champions League tie.
Our verdict
A razor-thin margin: Manchester City at 54%, but the draw sits at 27%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key facts
🧤
Defensive Wall
FC Porto keep clean sheets in 75% of games. One of the tightest defences around
🔥
Hot Streak
FC Porto have won 5 in a row. Momentum is real
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 59% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
Goals are a tough one to call here. FC Porto are scoring 1.8 a game (1.8 of those at home) and Manchester City manage 1.6 (1.4 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 59%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 52%. Two or more goals at @1.22 is a steadier alternative for accas.
Both teams score in 25% of FC Porto's home games and 53% of Manchester City's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
▸ Team news & context
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
FC Porto do it the hard way: only 1.8 a game up top, but a mean 0.5 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break.
In the last 2 meetings: FC Porto have won 0, Manchester City 1, with 1 draw. These fixtures average 2.0 goals per game. 1 of the last 2 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: FC Porto 0-0 Manchester City, Manchester City 3-1 FC Porto.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 1-2 (6%) and 1-3 (2%).
First Half Result
-
FC Porto HT
4.00
-
Draw HT
2.38
-
Manchester City HT
2.25
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Manchester City · xG
For: 2.02/g
Against: 1.26/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
FC Porto vs Manchester City Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
FC Porto Win |
@4.40
|
19.4% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.80
|
27.0% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Manchester City Win |
@1.75
|
53.6% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.65
|
51.8% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.20
|
48.2% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.67
|
58.9% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.30
|
41.1% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.22
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@4.70
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.75
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.50
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
FC Porto vs Manchester City Team Stats
FC Porto
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Manchester City
Position
8
Played
10
Record
5W-1D-4L
Goals F/A
16/14
Avg Goals Scored
1.60
Points
16
Overall Form
WWLDW
Away Record
2W-1D-2L
FC Porto vs Manchester City Head to Head
Limited recent meetings (2), too small a sample for a reliable head-to-head split.
0 Home Wins
1 Draws
1 Away Wins
2.0
Avg Goals
1/2
BTTS
1/2
Over 2.5
2020-12-01
FC Porto 0-0 City
2020-10-21
FC Porto 1-3 City
Full FC Porto vs Manchester City head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-2
6.3%
1-3
2.2%
2-3
1.7%
0-3
1.4%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Same-game fold one leg per market, live prices
-
Under 3.5 goals
70%
@1.50
Unibet
-
Manchester City over 3.5 corners
Smart
83%
@1.20
Unibet
-
Under 5.5 cards
74%
@1.35
Unibet
Combined 2.43
· £5 returns
£12.15
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
FC Porto or Manchester City (double chance)
85%
@1.27
Marathon Bet
-
Under 4 goals
85%
@1.18
Marathon Bet
-
Under 2 first half goals
85%
@1.20
BetVictor
-
Manchester City over 1 goals
83%
@1.21
Marathon Bet
-
Manchester City over 3.5 corners
83%
@1.20
Unibet
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
82%
@1.28
Betano
-
Over 7.5 shots on target
82%
@1.22
Unibet
-
Over 7.5 corners
81%
@1.23
Unibet
-
Under 12.5 corners
81%
@1.24
Unibet
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
80%
@1.34
Betano
-
Over 2 goals
79%
@1.31
BetVictor
-
FC Porto under 5.5 corners
78%
@1.28
Unibet
Build a slip from these markets →