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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grimsby Town Win | 48.6% | 57.1% | 9 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51.4% | 57.1% | 6 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
A test of nerve as much as quality when Grimsby Town welcome Exeter City.
Grimsby Town take on Exeter City in the League Two. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Grimsby Town will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Exeter City travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Marginal call: Grimsby Town at just 49%. With the draw at 25%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Grimsby Town, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Both sides are prolific in front of goal. Grimsby Town average 2.2 per game and Exeter City chip in with 2.0. Expect an open, attacking contest.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Grimsby Town are scoring 2.2 a game (2.2 of those at home) and Exeter City manage 2.0 (2.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 51%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line.
Both teams score in 48% of Grimsby Town's home games and 48% of Exeter City's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Grimsby Town are all-out attack: 2.2 goals a game, but they leak 1.2 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Exeter City, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Exeter City have goals in them (2.0 per game) but their record at the back (1.6 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Grimsby Town Win | @1.83 | 48.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.50 | 25.0% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Exeter City Win | @4.00 | 26.4% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.85 | 51.4% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.85 | 48.6% | William Hill |
Our model makes Grimsby Town the favourite with a 48.6% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Grimsby Town @ 1.83, Draw @ 3.50, Exeter City @ 4.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Grimsby Town vs Exeter City kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 in the League Two.
Our top prediction is Grimsby Town to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.