Bournemouth vs Brentford Predictions & Odds
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Tricky away day for Brentford (3rd, 3 pts) as they travel to Bournemouth (13th, 0 pts), but the visitors' league position tells you they should have more than enough here.
Crucially, Bournemouth are in strong home form while Brentford are struggling away from home. the venue factor amplifies the form gap. Season-long, Brentford average 3.0 points per game compared to Bournemouth's 0.0. that gap in consistency is hard to ignore. Interestingly, Bournemouth look better than their results show. The quality of chances they create is worth 1.8 a game, but they're only converting 1.0 goals. They're creating more than the scoreline shows and look due a few more goals. The gap in chance quality is clear: Bournemouth come out at +0.5 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.2. that's a real edge in the quality of chances. A concern for Brentford: they're giving up chances worth 2.0 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.6 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Bournemouth create chances worth 1.8 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them +0.5 a game on the balance. Brentford create 1.5 (giving up 1.6) for a balance of -0.2. The underlying numbers clearly favour Bournemouth. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Bournemouth should be scoring more. Their chances are worth 1.8 a game but they're only getting 1.0 goals. When the finishing clicks, they'll be a handful. Brentford's defence is giving up chances. Worth 2.0 a game over their last 5 vs 1.6 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Bournemouth are scoring 1.0 a game (1.0 of those at home) and Brentford manage 3.0 (3.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 54%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 45%.
Both teams score in 63% of Bournemouth's home games and 47% of Brentford's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Brentford have goals in them (3.0 per game) but their record at the back (1.3 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end. The chance data suggests Bournemouth will create openings. The chances they create are worth 1.8 a game and Brentford give up chances worth 1.6 on the road. Expect Bournemouth to see plenty of the ball.
In the last 10 meetings: Bournemouth have won 0, Brentford 7, with 3 draws. These fixtures average 2.8 goals per game. 6 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Bournemouth 0-0 Brentford, Brentford 4-1 Bournemouth, Bournemouth 0-2 Brentford, Bournemouth 1-2 Brentford.
Most likely scorelines: 1-2 (9%) and 0-2 (8%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Bournemouth Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Brentford Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Bournemouth vs Brentford kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 15:00 in the Premier League.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 45.0% probability.