Tottenham vs Everton Predictions & Odds
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Tottenham (17th, 0 pts) face the unenviable task of hosting in-form Everton (5th, 3 pts). The gap in quality should tell, but home advantage can be a great leveller.
Crucially, Tottenham are in strong home form while Everton are struggling away from home. the venue factor amplifies the form gap. Season-long, Everton average 3.0 points per game compared to Tottenham's 0.0. that gap in consistency is hard to ignore. The gap in chance quality is clear: Tottenham come out at +0.1 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.3. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Tottenham create chances worth 1.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.0), leaving them +0.1 a game on the balance. Everton create 1.3 (giving up 1.6) for a balance of -0.3. The underlying numbers clearly favour Tottenham. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones.
Tottenham average 1.6 goals per game and Everton manage 2.0. Combined that's just 3.6. We make it only 39% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Both teams scoring is unlikely here (29%).
Both teams score in 68% of Tottenham's home games and 47% of Everton's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Tottenham need points desperately. Sitting 17th in the table, every match feels like a cup final now.
Everton have goals in them (2.0 per game) but their record at the back (1.6 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
In the last 10 meetings: Tottenham have won 6, Everton 1, with 3 draws. These fixtures average 2.9 goals per game. 6 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Tottenham 1-0 Everton, Everton 0-3 Tottenham, Everton 3-2 Tottenham, Tottenham 4-0 Everton.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (7%) and 0-2 (5%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Tottenham Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Everton Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Tottenham vs Everton kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 17:30 in the Premier League.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 28.8% probability.