Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
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Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Aston Villa have won three of their last five; Nottingham Forest are winless in their last five. The momentum is with the hosts going into this Premier League tie.
Aston Villa's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf. One thing to keep in mind about Aston Villa. They're scoring 1.8 goals per game but the quality of chances they create only works out at 1.4. Scoring that much more than the chances suggest (+0.4), that kind of hot finishing usually cools off, so their results may be flattering their actual play. A concern for Nottingham Forest: they're giving up chances worth 2.0 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.5 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Aston Villa create chances worth 1.4 a game (and give up chances worth 1.5), leaving them -0.2 a game on the balance. Nottingham Forest create 1.4 (giving up 1.5) for a balance of -0.2. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. Aston Villa are scoring 1.8 goals a game off chances worth just 1.4. That's +0.4 more than the chances suggest: finishing hot. History says this kind of run usually cools off. Nottingham Forest's defence is giving up chances. Worth 2.0 a game over their last 5 vs 1.5 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Aston Villa are scoring 1.8 a game (1.8 of those at home) and Nottingham Forest manage 1.4 (1.4 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 40%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 44%.
Both teams score in 53% of Aston Villa's home games and 47% of Nottingham Forest's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
In the last 10 meetings: Aston Villa have won 5, Nottingham Forest 3, with 2 draws. These fixtures average 2.9 goals per game. 5 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Aston Villa 4-0 Nottingham Forest, Nottingham Forest 1-0 Aston Villa, Nottingham Forest 1-1 Aston Villa, Aston Villa 3-1 Nottingham Forest.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (6%) and 0-2 (6%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Aston Villa Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Nottingham Forest Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Full Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest head-to-head history →
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 15:00 in the Premier League.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 44.2% probability.