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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| York City Win | 39.4% | 46.5% | 7 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 48.0% | 52.1% | 4 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.
Projections from club-season form only, informational, never recorded or graded, and outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
The key duel: Bristol Rovers's attack against York City's back line.
York City welcome Bristol Rovers in the League Two. We've crunched the numbers. Here's our preview.
E. Harrison has been Bristol Rovers's main threat, with 11 goals and 2 assists in 38 appearances, averaging 0.61 shots on target per game.
Too close to call with any conviction. York City edge it at 39% but a draw (26%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
This one is wide open according to the bookmakers. York City at @2.15 (39%) and Bristol Rovers at @2.90 (35%) are closely matched, with the draw at @3.10 (26%) very much in play. When the odds are this tight, home advantage could be the deciding factor.
It's a coin-flip whether we see three or more, and we make it 48%. Neither a high-scoring game nor a tight one is much more likely than the other.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | York City Win | @2.15 | 39.4% | Sky Bet |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.10 | 25.9% | Sky Bet |
| Match Result | Bristol Rovers Win | @2.90 | 34.6% | Sky Bet |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.00 | 48.0% | Grosvenor |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.73 | 52.0% | Grosvenor |
Our model makes York City the favourite with a 39.4% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: York City @ 2.15, Draw @ 3.10, Bristol Rovers @ 2.90. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
York City vs Bristol Rovers kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 in the League Two.
Our top prediction is York City to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.