Toulouse vs Le Havre Predictions & Odds
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A Ligue 1 clash between two sides separated by just 2 places in the table. Toulouse (16th, 1 pts) and Le Havre (14th, 1 pts) both have plenty to play for.
Toulouse will be looking to make home advantage count (W0 D0 L2 at home). Le Havre's away record reads W0 D1 L0. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. Le Havre have been outstanding on the road recently. Their away form is significantly better than their season average. Neither side has been putting the ball away much. Toulouse average just 0.7 goals per game and Le Havre manage 0.5. This doesn't look like a high-scoring one.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Toulouse create chances worth 1.0 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them -0.4 a game on the balance. Le Havre create 1.2 (giving up 1.5) for a balance of -0.3. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.
Toulouse average 0.7 goals per game and Le Havre manage 0.5. Combined that's just 1.2. We make it only 34% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 47%.
Both teams score in 41% of Toulouse's home games and 41% of Le Havre's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
In the last 10 meetings: Toulouse have won 5, Le Havre 3, with 2 draws. These fixtures average 2.8 goals per game. 5 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Le Havre 2-1 Toulouse, Toulouse 0-0 Le Havre, Le Havre 1-4 Toulouse, Toulouse 2-0 Le Havre.
Most likely scorelines: 0-1 (16%) and 0-0 (15%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Toulouse Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Le Havre Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Toulouse vs Le Havre kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 19:45 in the Ligue 1.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 47.0% probability.