Lyon vs Rennes Predictions & Odds
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Lyon have taken 7 points from their last five; Rennes have lost three of their last six. Form gives little away going into this Ligue 1 tie.
A concern for Rennes: they're giving up chances worth 2.1 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.7 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Lyon create chances worth 1.6 a game (and give up chances worth 1.5), leaving them +0.1 a game on the balance. Rennes create 1.9 (giving up 1.7) for a balance of +0.2. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. Lyon are trending upwards. Their chances are worth 1.9 a game over the last 5 vs 1.6 for the season. They're in a real attacking groove. Rennes's defence is giving up chances. Worth 2.1 a game over their last 5 vs 1.7 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
Lyon average 1.5 goals per game and Rennes manage 2.0. Combined that's just 3.5. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Interestingly, the chances suggest more goals than the headline number. Lyon and Rennes together create chances worth 3.5 a game. The low figure might be underrating the attacking quality here.
Both teams score in 47% of Lyon's home games and 47% of Rennes's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
The stakes are high for Lyon at this stage of the season. Their fans will expect a performance, and the home support will be vocal in driving them on. Rennes face a tough afternoon.
Lyon do it the hard way: only 1.5 a game up top, but a mean 0.5 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break. Rennes have goals in them (2.0 per game) but their record at the back (2.5 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end. Don't underestimate the visitors. Rennes create chances worth 1.9 a game and Lyon give up chances worth 1.5 at home. The away side could control the ball here.
In the last 10 meetings: Lyon have won 4, Rennes 6, with 0 draws. These fixtures average 4.4 goals per game. 9 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Both teams have scored in most of their recent meetings, so there's a good chance both find the net again. Recent results: Lyon 4-2 Rennes, Rennes 3-1 Lyon, Lyon 4-1 Rennes, Rennes 3-0 Lyon.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (10%) and 2-1 (10%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Lyon Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Rennes Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Lyon vs Rennes kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 19:45 in the Ligue 1.