St. Louis City vs Toronto FC Predictions & Odds
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St. Louis City are unbeaten in their last five; Toronto FC have taken six points from their last five. The momentum is with the hosts going into this MLS tie.
S. Becher has been St. Louis City's spearhead, with 6 goals and 4 assists in 22 appearances, averaging 0.86 shots on target per game. D. Sallói has been Toronto FC's main threat, with 6 goals and 4 assists in 22 appearances, averaging 0.95 shots on target per game.
Toronto FC have been outstanding on the road recently. Their away form is significantly better than their season average. A concern for Toronto FC: they're giving up chances worth 1.8 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.4 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
St. Louis City create chances worth 2.0 a game (and give up chances worth 1.8), leaving them +0.2 a game on the balance. Toronto FC create 1.1 (giving up 1.4) for a balance of -0.4. The underlying numbers clearly favour St. Louis City. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Toronto FC's defence is giving up chances. Worth 1.8 a game over their last 5 vs 1.4 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
St. Louis City average 1.9 goals per game and Toronto FC manage 1.1. Combined that's just 3.0. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Interestingly, the chances suggest more goals than the headline number. St. Louis City and Toronto FC together create chances worth 3.1 a game. The low figure might be underrating the attacking quality here.
St. Louis City are all-out attack: 1.9 goals a game, but they leak 0.9 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Toronto FC, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | St. Louis City Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Toronto FC Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
St. Louis City vs Toronto FC kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 01:30 in the MLS.