St. Louis City vs Real Salt Lake Predictions & Odds
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Form, fitness, fine margins. St. Louis City and Real Salt Lake meet in a fixture that could swing either way.
A MLS fixture between St. Louis City and Real Salt Lake. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. St. Louis City will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Real Salt Lake travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Real Salt Lake are creating better chances than their goal return suggests (chance quality of 1.4 against 1.1 actual goals). They look due a few more. St. Louis City have been even sharper lately. The chances they create are worth 2.0 a game over their last 5 compared to a season average of 1.6. They're creating more as the season goes on. A concern for Real Salt Lake: they're giving up chances worth 2.2 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.4 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
St. Louis City create chances worth 1.6 a game (and give up chances worth 3.9), leaving them -2.3 a game on the balance. Real Salt Lake create 1.4 (giving up 1.4) for a balance of -0.1. On the quality of chances, Real Salt Lake look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. Real Salt Lake are creating chances worth 1.4 a game but only finishing 1.1. the underlying performance is better than the results show. St. Louis City are trending upwards. Their chances are worth 2.0 a game over the last 5 vs 1.6 for the season. They're in a real attacking groove. Real Salt Lake's defence is giving up chances. Worth 2.2 a game over their last 5 vs 1.4 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. St. Louis City average 1.5 goals per game and Real Salt Lake manage 1.1. Combined that's just 2.6. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | St. Louis City Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Real Salt Lake Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
St. Louis City vs Real Salt Lake kicks off on Sunday 2 August 2026 at 01:30 in the MLS.