FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes Predictions & Odds
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All eyes on FC Cincinnati as San Jose Earthquakes travel to face FC Cincinnati.
FC Cincinnati welcome San Jose Earthquakes in the MLS. We've crunched the numbers. Here's our preview.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. FC Cincinnati will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while San Jose Earthquakes travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
FC Cincinnati will be looking to make home advantage count (W11 D3 L6 at home). San Jose Earthquakes's away record reads W6 D2 L9. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. FC Cincinnati's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf. A concern for San Jose Earthquakes: they're giving up chances worth 2.5 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.7 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
FC Cincinnati create chances worth 1.9 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them +0.5 a game on the balance. San Jose Earthquakes create 1.2 (giving up 1.7) for a balance of -0.5. The underlying numbers clearly favour FC Cincinnati. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. A worry for FC Cincinnati: the chances they're creating lately are worth 1.5 a game, well below their 1.9 season figure. The attacking output has dipped. San Jose Earthquakes's defence is giving up chances. Worth 2.5 a game over their last 5 vs 1.7 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. FC Cincinnati average 1.4 goals per game and San Jose Earthquakes manage 1.8. Combined that's just 3.2. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Interestingly, the chances suggest more goals than the headline number. FC Cincinnati and San Jose Earthquakes together create chances worth 3.1 a game. The low figure might be underrating the attacking quality here.
San Jose Earthquakes have goals in them (1.8 per game) but their record at the back (1.9 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | FC Cincinnati Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | San Jose Earthquakes Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes kicks off on Sunday 2 August 2026 at 00:30 in the MLS.