New York Red Bulls vs Orlando City SC Predictions & Odds
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All eyes on New York Red Bulls as Orlando City SC travel to face New York Red Bulls.
New York Red Bulls take on Orlando City SC in the MLS. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. New York Red Bulls will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Orlando City SC travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
New York Red Bulls will be looking to make home advantage count (W10 D3 L4 at home). Orlando City SC's away record reads W6 D7 L5. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. Orlando City SC have been outstanding on the road recently. Their away form is significantly better than their season average. Interestingly, New York Red Bulls look better than their results show. The quality of chances they create is worth 1.5 a game, but they're only converting 1.4 goals. They're creating more than the scoreline shows and look due a few more goals. Orlando City SC could be in for a similar cool-off. 1.8 goals a game against chance quality worth only 1.3. Hot finishing has been covering for the fact they aren't creating that much. A concern for Orlando City SC: they're giving up chances worth 2.4 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.9 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
New York Red Bulls create chances worth 1.5 a game (and give up chances worth 1.7), leaving them -0.2 a game on the balance. Orlando City SC create 1.3 (giving up 1.9) for a balance of -0.6. The underlying numbers clearly favour New York Red Bulls. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Orlando City SC are also scoring more than their chances suggest (1.8 goals vs chance quality of 1.3). Both runs could cool off at once. New York Red Bulls should be scoring more. Their chances are worth 1.5 a game but they're only getting 1.4 goals. When the finishing clicks, they'll be a handful. Orlando City SC's defence is giving up chances. Worth 2.4 a game over their last 5 vs 1.9 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. New York Red Bulls average 1.4 goals per game and Orlando City SC manage 1.8. Combined that's just 3.2. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
Orlando City SC have goals in them (1.8 per game) but their record at the back (1.5 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | New York Red Bulls Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Orlando City SC Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
New York Red Bulls vs Orlando City SC kicks off on Sunday 2 August 2026 at 00:30 in the MLS.