San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes Predictions & Odds
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A MLS meeting between San Diego (1st, 63 pts) and San Jose Earthquakes (10th, 41 pts). Two sides with their own objectives and plenty to play for.
M. Ingvartsen has been San Diego's spearhead, with 11 goals and 3 assists in 21 appearances, averaging 0.90 shots on target per game. P. Judd has been San Jose Earthquakes's main threat, with 11 goals and 2 assists in 20 appearances, averaging 1.40 shots on target per game.
A concern for San Jose Earthquakes: they're giving up chances worth 1.9 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.5 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
San Diego create chances worth 1.8 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them +0.5 a game on the balance. San Jose Earthquakes create 1.8 (giving up 1.5) for a balance of +0.3. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. A worry for San Diego: the chances they're creating lately are worth 1.5 a game, well below their 1.8 season figure. The attacking output has dipped. San Jose Earthquakes's defence is giving up chances. Worth 1.9 a game over their last 5 vs 1.5 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
San Diego average 1.8 goals per game and San Jose Earthquakes manage 1.8. Combined that's just 3.6. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Interestingly, the chances suggest more goals than the headline number. San Diego and San Jose Earthquakes together create chances worth 3.6 a game. The low figure might be underrating the attacking quality here.
San Diego are all-out attack: 1.8 goals a game, but they leak 1.7 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at San Jose Earthquakes, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. San Jose Earthquakes have goals in them (1.8 per game) but their record at the back (1.9 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | San Diego Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | San Jose Earthquakes Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes kicks off on Thursday 10 September 2026 at 03:30 in the MLS.