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Monterrey arrive as the price says they should win. The question is how comfortably.
A Liga MX fixture between Monterrey and FC Juárez. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Monterrey will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while FC Juárez travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Our PickMonterrey to win at @1.53. Model probability 57% vs implied 65%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Monterrey average 1.3 goals per game and FC Juárez manage 1.0. Combined that's just 2.3. We make it only 63% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Monterrey Win | @1.53 | 56.9% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.75 | 23.1% | William Hill |
| Match Result | FC Juárez Win | @5.00 | 20.1% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.55 | 63.1% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.25 | 36.9% | William Hill |
Our model makes Monterrey the favourite with a 56.9% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Monterrey @ 1.53, Draw @ 3.75, FC Juárez @ 5.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Monterrey vs FC Juárez kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 02:00 in the Liga MX.