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Santos Laguna know what's at stake, and so do Guadalajara.
Santos Laguna take on Guadalajara in the Liga MX. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Santos Laguna will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Guadalajara travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Our PickGuadalajara to win at @1.53. Model probability 57% vs implied 65%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Santos Laguna are scoring 1.3 a game (1.3 of those at home) and Guadalajara manage 1.3 (1.3 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 60%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Santos Laguna Win | @4.33 | 19.3% | Sky Bet |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.60 | 24.0% | Sky Bet |
| Match Result | Guadalajara Win | @1.53 | 56.8% | Sky Bet |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.60 | 59.6% | LeoVegas |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.05 | 40.4% | LeoVegas |
Our model makes Guadalajara the favourite with a 56.8% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Santos Laguna @ 4.33, Draw @ 3.60, Guadalajara @ 1.53. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara kicks off on Monday 17 August 2026 at 02:00 in the Liga MX.