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Form, fitness, fine margins. Tijuana and Cruz Azul meet in a fixture that could swing either way.
A Liga MX fixture between Tijuana and Cruz Azul. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Tijuana will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Cruz Azul travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Tijuana are scoring 1.4 a game (1.4 of those at home) and Cruz Azul manage 1.9 (1.9 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 53%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line.
Tijuana do it the hard way: only 1.4 a game up top, but a mean 0.6 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break. Cruz Azul have goals in them (1.9 per game) but their record at the back (1.2 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Tijuana Win | @2.80 | 28.8% | Sky Bet |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.20 | 27.2% | Sky Bet |
| Match Result | Cruz Azul Win | @2.10 | 44.0% | Sky Bet |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.75 | 53.4% | LeoVegas |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.85 | 46.6% | LeoVegas |
Our model makes Cruz Azul the favourite with a 44.0% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Tijuana @ 2.80, Draw @ 3.20, Cruz Azul @ 2.10. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Tijuana vs Cruz Azul kicks off on Monday 17 August 2026 at 04:00 in the Liga MX.