Leeds vs Crystal Palace Predictions & Odds
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Leeds (9th, 4 pts) host Crystal Palace (18th, 0 pts) in the Premier League. Both sides will be targeting three points here.
Leeds will be looking to make home advantage count (W0 D1 L0 at home). Crystal Palace's away record reads W0 D0 L1. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. Crystal Palace have been outstanding on the road recently. Their away form is significantly better than their season average. Season-long, Leeds average 2.0 points per game compared to Crystal Palace's 0.0. that gap in consistency is hard to ignore. Crystal Palace are creating better chances than their goal return suggests (chance quality of 1.5 against 0.5 actual goals). They look due a few more. A concern for Crystal Palace: they're giving up chances worth 1.9 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.5 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Leeds create chances worth 1.4 a game (and give up chances worth 1.3), leaving them +0.1 a game on the balance. Crystal Palace create 1.5 (giving up 1.5) for a balance of 0.0. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. Crystal Palace are creating chances worth 1.5 a game but only finishing 0.5. the underlying performance is better than the results show. Crystal Palace's defence is giving up chances. Worth 1.9 a game over their last 5 vs 1.5 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
Leeds average 1.0 goals per game and Crystal Palace manage 0.5. Combined that's just 1.5. We make it only 40% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 44%.
Both teams score in 53% of Leeds's home games and 53% of Crystal Palace's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Crystal Palace travel here with relegation breathing down their neck. At 18th, they can't afford to drop many more points.
Leeds do it the hard way: only 1.0 a game up top, but a mean 0.5 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break.
In the last 10 meetings: Leeds have won 3, Crystal Palace 3, with 4 draws. These fixtures average 2.8 goals per game. 5 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Crystal Palace 0-0 Leeds, Leeds 4-1 Crystal Palace, Leeds 1-5 Crystal Palace, Crystal Palace 2-1 Leeds.
Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (16%) and 2-0 (16%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Leeds Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Crystal Palace Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Leeds vs Crystal Palace kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 14:00 in the Premier League.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 43.8% probability.