Bournemouth vs Liverpool Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
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Tricky away day for Liverpool (5th, 5 pts) as they travel to Bournemouth (14th, 1 pts), but the visitors' league position tells you they should have more than enough here.
Liverpool are no pushovers away from home. W1 D1 L0 from 2 away trips, scoring 2.0 per game on the road. Bournemouth (W0 D1 L0 at home) can't afford to take this lightly. Crucially, Bournemouth are in strong home form while Liverpool are struggling away from home. the venue factor amplifies the form gap. Season-long, Liverpool average 1.7 points per game compared to Bournemouth's 0.5. that gap in consistency is hard to ignore. Interestingly, Bournemouth look better than their results show. The quality of chances they create is worth 1.8 a game, but they're only converting 1.0 goals. They're creating more than the scoreline shows and look due a few more goals.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Bournemouth create chances worth 1.8 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them +0.5 a game on the balance. Liverpool create 1.5 (giving up 1.4) for a balance of +0.1. The underlying numbers clearly favour Bournemouth. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Bournemouth should be scoring more. Their chances are worth 1.8 a game but they're only getting 1.0 goals. When the finishing clicks, they'll be a handful.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Bournemouth are scoring 1.0 a game (1.0 of those at home) and Liverpool manage 2.0 (2.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 52%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 48%.
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 63% of Bournemouth's home games and 68% of Liverpool's away matches.
Liverpool have goals in them (2.0 per game) but their record at the back (1.3 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
In the last 10 meetings: Bournemouth have won 2, Liverpool 8, with 0 draws. These fixtures average 4.0 goals per game. 8 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Bournemouth 3-2 Liverpool, Liverpool 4-2 Bournemouth, Bournemouth 0-2 Liverpool, Liverpool 3-0 Bournemouth.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (11%) and 1-2 (10%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Bournemouth Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Liverpool Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Bournemouth vs Liverpool kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 14:00 in the Premier League.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 47.5% probability.