Cruz Azul v Toluca

Saturday 26 September 2026, 23:50 Liga MX

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72% across 1046 graded picks, in public. The record

The model's read

Cruz Azul 32% Draw 27% Toluca 41%

The read

The desk

Cruz Azul's home form has turned sour just as Toluca arrive unbeaten on the road, and the FIFA call-ups cut both ways: Cruz Azul lose their goalkeeper and two midfielders, Toluca lose four attackers including Alexis Vega. That leaves a tighter, scrappier fixture than the home odds suggest, not a home banker.

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The model says

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The call on this game Over 2.5 Goals

Every call is logged before kick-off and graded in public - the whole record is on the track record, misses included.

Add the call to my slip · 1.62

Your slip

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The research

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The research desk on this game:

“Cruz Azul's home slump and a weakened XI make the safe home price the trap here.”

The desk's verdict on the model's call: hold. The reason, the team news and every market's grade sit inside.

Every market graded strong, medium or killed, the team news by name, and the desk's own word on the model's call, with the reason written down. Seven days for £1 opens the whole card, on this game and every other.

The model v the market

Always free
Best priceImplied
Cruz Azul win 2.50 40%
Draw 3.10 32%
Toluca win 2.45 41%
Cruz Azul or draw 1.44 69%
Toluca or draw 1.44 69%
Either side to win, no draw 1.30 77%
Over 2.5 goals 1.62 62%
Both teams to score 1.50 67%

Model numbers are published only on leagues where our graded record supports them. Here the market's prices stand alone.

The shadow model's number on every market here, labelled as information and never on the record. Seven days for £1.

Every priced market

18 markets
Cruz Azul over 0.5 goals Betano 1.23
Toluca under 2.5 goals Bet365 1.20
Under 2 first half goals Marathon Bet 1.18
Cruz Azul over 3.5 corners Betano 1.18
Under 2.5 second half goals Betano 1.27
Under 4 goals Marathon Bet 1.22
Cruz Azul or Toluca (double chance) Betano 1.34
Over 2 goals BetVictor 1.29
Over 0.5 first half goals Betano 1.36
Over 8.5 corners Betano 1.26
Over 1 second half goals Marathon Bet 1.27
Toluca over 3.5 corners Betano 1.29
Cruz Azul under 2 goals Marathon Bet 1.30
Under 13.5 corners Betano 1.31
Toluca under 2 goals Marathon Bet 1.32
Cruz Azul over 4.5 corners Betano 1.40
Toluca or Draw (double chance) Bet365 1.50
Both teams to score: Yes Bet365 1.53

The bookmakers' best prices on every market we track for this game, corners, cards and shots included. Prices are theirs, with their margin in; our own number appears only where the model has a graded record. Tap any to add it to your slip. The desk's grade on each is in FBB Pro.

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