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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crawley Town Win | 31.8% | 46.1% | 14 pts under |
| Both Teams to Score | 49.9% | 59.9% | 10 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50.0% | 53.2% | 3 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
A test of nerve as much as quality when Crawley Town welcome Crewe.
A League Two fixture between Crawley Town and Crewe. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Crawley Town will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Crewe travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Too close to call with any conviction. Crewe edge it at 40% but a draw (28%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Crawley Town average 1.2 goals per game and Crewe manage 0.8. Combined that's just 2.0. We make it only 50% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 50%.
Both teams score in 57% of Crawley Town's home games and 57% of Crewe's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Crawley Town Win | @2.50 | 31.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.10 | 27.7% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Crewe Win | @2.62 | 40.4% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.73 | 49.9% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.00 | 50.1% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.95 | 50.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.88 | 50.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.28 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.58 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.40 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.33 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Crewe the favourite with a 40.4% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Crawley Town @ 2.50, Draw @ 3.10, Crewe @ 2.62. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Crawley Town vs Crewe kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 in the League Two.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 49.9% probability.
Our top prediction is Crewe to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.