Chicago Fire vs Charlotte Predictions & Odds
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Chicago Fire are flying. Charlotte arrive in their path.
A MLS fixture between Chicago Fire and Charlotte. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Chicago Fire will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Charlotte travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Chicago Fire's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf. Interestingly, Chicago Fire look better than their results show. The quality of chances they create is worth 2.9 a game, but they're only converting 2.0 goals. They're creating more than the scoreline shows and look due a few more goals. Chicago Fire have been even sharper lately. The chances they create are worth 3.3 a game over their last 5 compared to a season average of 2.9. They're creating more as the season goes on.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Chicago Fire create chances worth 2.9 a game (and give up chances worth 0.4), leaving them +2.5 a game on the balance. Charlotte create 0.9 (giving up 1.2) for a balance of -0.4. The underlying numbers clearly favour Chicago Fire. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Chicago Fire should be scoring more. Their chances are worth 2.9 a game but they're only getting 2.0 goals. When the finishing clicks, they'll be a handful. Chicago Fire are trending upwards. Their chances are worth 3.3 a game over the last 5 vs 2.9 for the season. They're in a real attacking groove.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Chicago Fire average 2.0 goals per game and Charlotte manage 1.4. Combined that's just 3.4. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Interestingly, the chances suggest more goals than the headline number. Chicago Fire and Charlotte together create chances worth 3.7 a game. The low figure might be underrating the attacking quality here.
Chicago Fire are all-out attack: 2.0 goals a game, but they leak 1.8 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Charlotte, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Chicago Fire Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Charlotte Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Chicago Fire vs Charlotte kicks off on Sunday 2 August 2026 at 01:30 in the MLS.