03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Both Teams to Score |
45.2% |
54.3% |
9 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
41.6% |
48.5% |
7 pts under
|
| Celta Vigo Win |
45.7% |
51.3% |
6 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Match Stats
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
-
Over 8.5 Match Corners
38% (model)
Corners: Celta Vigo avg 3.1 for/3.9 against, Osasuna avg 5.7 for/3.0 against → expected 7.8 match corners
-
Over 3.5 Match Cards
53% (model)
Cards: Celta Vigo avg 2.1/game, Osasuna avg 1.7/game → expected 3.8 match cards
-
Over 24.5 Match Fouls
64% (model)
Fouls: Celta Vigo avg 12.9/game, Osasuna avg 13.7/game → expected 26.5 match fouls
-
Over 22.5 Match Shots
8% (model)
Shots: Celta Vigo avg 8.6/game, Osasuna avg 8.0/game → expected 16.6 match shots
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Key Stats
🎯
Both teams scored in 63% of Celta Vigo home games
01The read
Analysing Celta Vigo vs Osasuna: Who Wins?
Osasuna arrive on a 5-game losing run to face a side the model has at 46%.
Celta Vigo slight edge (46%) | Predicted: 1-0
Confidence
★★★★★
Celta Vigo have won three of their last five; Osasuna have lost five in a row. The momentum is with the hosts going into this La Liga tie.
Our verdict
Too close to call with any conviction. Celta Vigo edge it at 46% but a draw (29%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key facts
📉
Cold Run
Osasuna have lost their last 5. Confidence in that dressing room will be low
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 63% of Celta Vigo's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
▸ Form & goals
The gap in chance quality is clear: Osasuna come out at +0.3 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.4. that's a real edge in the quality of chances. A concern for Osasuna: they're giving up chances worth 1.4 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.1 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Celta Vigo create chances worth 1.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.6), leaving them -0.4 a game on the balance. Osasuna create 1.3 (giving up 1.1) for a balance of +0.3. On the quality of chances, Osasuna look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. Osasuna's defence is giving up chances. Worth 1.4 a game over their last 5 vs 1.1 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
Celta Vigo average 1.3 goals per game and Osasuna manage 1.2. Combined that's just 2.5. We make it only 42% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 45%.
Both teams score in 63% of Celta Vigo's home games and 37% of Osasuna's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
If you like Celta Vigo but want a bit of cover, the Home/Draw double chance at @1.25 , which pays out if Celta Vigo win or draw, covers 74% of the outcomes. Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (11%) and 2-0 (7%).
First Half Result
-
Celta Vigo HT
2.50
-
Draw HT
2.10
-
Osasuna HT
4.20
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Celta Vigo · xG
For: 1.24/g
Against: 1.60/g
📊 Osasuna · xG
For: 1.32/g
Against: 1.06/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Celta Vigo vs Osasuna Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Celta Vigo Win |
@2.00
|
45.7% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.25
|
28.6% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Osasuna Win |
@3.60
|
25.7% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.85
|
45.2% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@1.85
|
54.8% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@2.10
|
41.6% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.78
|
58.4% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.36
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@3.25
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@4.00
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.27
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Celta Vigo vs Osasuna Team Stats
Celta Vigo
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
CA Osasuna
Position
16
Played
38
Record
11W-9D-18L
Goals F/A
44/50
Avg Goals Scored
1.16
Points
42
Overall Form
LLLLL
Away Form
LLL
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-0
11.2%
2-0
7.3%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Same-game fold one leg per market, live prices
-
Under 3.5 goals
Smart
81%
@1.27
Betano
-
Over 6.5 corners
Smart
85%
@1.18
Unibet
-
Borja Iglesias 1+ shots on target
74%
@1.36
Bet365
-
Iago Aspas 1+ shots on target
74%
@1.36
Bet365
-
Ante Budimir 1+ shots on target
71%
@1.40
Bet365
Combined 3.88
· £5 returns
£19.40
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Iago Aspas 2+ shots
85%
@1.18
Bet365
-
Over 6.5 corners
85%
@1.18
Unibet
-
Celta Vigo or Draw (double chance)
84%
@1.31
1xBet
-
Celta Vigo under 7.5 corners
84%
@1.19
Unibet
-
Over 0.5 second half goals
83%
@1.30
William Hill
-
Borja Iglesias 2+ shots
83%
@1.20
Bet365
-
Under 2 second half goals
83%
@1.24
Marathon Bet
-
Celta Vigo over 0.5 goals
83%
@1.27
Betano
-
Under 3.5 goals
81%
@1.27
Betano
-
Celta Vigo or Osasuna (double chance)
80%
@1.36
1xBet
-
Celta Vigo under 2 goals
80%
@1.26
Marathon Bet
-
Under 11.5 corners
80%
@1.25
Unibet
Build a slip from these markets →