Alaves vs Villarreal Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
Get the model's verified verdict on Alaves (and any team you follow) emailed the moment odds drop. Free, no spam, one-click unsubscribe.
Alaves have taken 7 points from their last five; Villarreal have taken 7 points from their last five. Form gives little away going into this La Liga tie.
Villarreal could be in for a similar cool-off. 1.9 goals a game against chance quality worth only 1.6. Hot finishing has been covering for the fact they aren't creating that much.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Alaves create chances worth 1.4 a game (and give up chances worth 1.1), leaving them +0.4 a game on the balance. Villarreal create 1.6 (giving up 1.2) for a balance of +0.5. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. Villarreal are also scoring more than their chances suggest (1.9 goals vs chance quality of 1.6). Both runs could cool off at once.
Alaves average 1.3 goals per game and Villarreal manage 1.9. Combined that's just 3.2. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Interestingly, the chances suggest more goals than the headline number. Alaves and Villarreal together create chances worth 3.1 a game. The low figure might be underrating the attacking quality here.
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 74% of Alaves's home games and 63% of Villarreal's away matches.
Villarreal have goals in them (1.9 per game) but their record at the back (1.2 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (11%) and 1-2 (9%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Alaves Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Villarreal Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Alaves vs Villarreal kicks off on Friday 28 August 2026 at 20:30 in the La Liga.