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Al-Ettifaq arrive on a 2-game losing run to face a side the model has at 72%.
Al-Qadsiah have won three straight; Al-Ettifaq have lost their last two. The momentum is with the hosts going into this Saudi Pro League tie.
Our PickAl-Qadsiah to win at @1.15. Model probability 72% vs implied 87%. The market is 15pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Al-Qadsiah average 2.6 goals per game and Al-Ettifaq manage 1.9. Combined that's just 4.5. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
Al-Qadsiah are in great shape right now, banging in 2.6 a game and only letting in 0.6. They're strong at both ends, so they tend to boss games and don't give much away at the back. Al-Ettifaq have goals in them (1.9 per game) but their record at the back (1.4 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Al-Qadsiah Win | @1.15 | 72.3% | Grosvenor |
| Match Result | Draw | @7.00 | 14.0% | LiveScore Bet |
| Match Result | Al-Ettifaq Win | @11.50 | 13.7% | Grosvenor |
Our model makes Al-Qadsiah the favourite with a 72.3% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Al-Qadsiah @ 1.15, Draw @ 7.00, Al-Ettifaq @ 11.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Al-Qadsiah vs Al-Ettifaq kicks off on Friday 11 September 2026 at 16:25 in the Saudi Pro League.