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Al-Ahli 67%, the draw 19%, Al-Hazem 15%. That's the shape of this one.
Al-Ahli have lost their last two; Al-Hazem have taken 7 points from their last five. Form gives little away going into this Saudi Pro League tie.
Our PickAl-Ahli to win at @1.29. Model probability 67% vs implied 78%. The market is 11pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Al-Ahli average 2.2 goals per game and Al-Hazem manage 1.1. Combined that's just 3.3. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
Al-Ahli are all-out attack: 2.2 goals a game, but they leak 1.1 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Al-Hazem, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Al-Ahli Win | @1.29 | 66.6% | Grosvenor |
| Match Result | Draw | @5.10 | 18.8% | Grosvenor |
| Match Result | Al-Hazem Win | @7.50 | 14.5% | Grosvenor |
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Our model makes Al-Ahli the favourite with a 66.6% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Al-Ahli @ 1.29, Draw @ 5.10, Al-Hazem @ 7.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Al-Ahli vs Al-Hazem kicks off on Friday 11 September 2026 at 19:00 in the Saudi Pro League.