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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| York City Win | 39.4% | 46.5% | 7 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 47.5% | 52.1% | 5 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
The key duel: Bristol Rovers's attack against York City's back line.
York City take on Bristol Rovers in the League Two. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. York City will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Bristol Rovers travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Marginal call: York City at just 39%. With the draw at 26%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for York City, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Goals are a tough one to call here. York City are scoring 1.4 a game (1.4 of those at home) and Bristol Rovers manage 2.3 (2.3 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 48%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line.
Both teams score in 62% of York City's home games and 57% of Bristol Rovers's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Bristol Rovers are similarly well-balanced. 2.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. This has the makings of a tight, tactical game between two organised sides.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | York City Win | @2.15 | 39.4% | Sky Bet |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.10 | 25.9% | Sky Bet |
| Match Result | Bristol Rovers Win | @2.90 | 34.6% | Sky Bet |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.00 | 47.5% | Grosvenor |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.73 | 52.5% | Grosvenor |
Our model makes York City the favourite with a 39.4% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: York City @ 2.15, Draw @ 3.10, Bristol Rovers @ 2.90. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
York City vs Bristol Rovers kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 in the League Two.
Our top prediction is York City to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.