03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Middlesbrough Win |
54.6% |
59.9% |
5 pts under
|
| Both Teams to Score |
53.7% |
56.5% |
3 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
54.7% |
54.1% |
1 pts over
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
01The read
Analysing Middlesbrough vs West Brom: Who Wins?
The model makes Middlesbrough 55% favourites here. West Brom carry the 18% upset.
Middlesbrough slight edge (55%) | Predicted: 2-1
Confidence
★★★★★
Middlesbrough (12th, 3 pts) host West Brom (2nd, 6 pts) in the Championship. Both sides will be targeting three points here.
Our verdict
Marginal call: Middlesbrough at just 55%. With the draw at 24%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Middlesbrough, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
▸ Form & goals
West Brom are no pushovers away from home. W1 D0 L0 from 1 away trips, scoring 2.0 per game on the road. Middlesbrough (W1 D0 L0 at home) can't afford to take this lightly. Crucially, Middlesbrough are in strong home form while West Brom are struggling away from home. the venue factor amplifies the form gap. Interestingly, Middlesbrough look better than their results show. The quality of chances they create is worth 2.0 a game, but they're only converting 1.5 goals. They're creating more than the scoreline shows and look due a few more goals.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Middlesbrough create chances worth 2.0 a game (and give up chances worth 1.2), leaving them +0.8 a game on the balance. West Brom create 1.6 (giving up 1.0) for a balance of +0.7. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. Middlesbrough should be scoring more. Their chances are worth 2.0 a game but they're only getting 1.5 goals. When the finishing clicks, they'll be a handful. A worry for Middlesbrough: the chances they're creating lately are worth 1.6 a game, well below their 2.0 season figure. The attacking output has dipped.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Middlesbrough are scoring 1.5 a game (2.0 of those at home) and West Brom manage 2.5 (2.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 55%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 54%.
Both teams score in 48% of Middlesbrough's home games and 48% of West Brom's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
▸ Team news & context
West Brom have goals in them (2.5 per game) but their record at the back (1.0 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
In the last 10 meetings: Middlesbrough have won 6, West Brom 2, with 2 draws. These fixtures average 2.7 goals per game. 4 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: West Brom 2-3 Middlesbrough, Middlesbrough 2-1 West Brom, Middlesbrough 2-0 West Brom.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Middlesbrough HT
2.25
-
Draw HT
2.25
-
West Brom HT
4.60
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Middlesbrough · xG
For: 2.00/g
Against: 1.23/g
💎 Underscoring xG by 0.60/g, value possible
📊 West Brom · xG
For: 1.63/g
Against: 0.95/g
💎 Underscoring xG by 0.33/g, value possible
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Middlesbrough vs West Brom Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Middlesbrough Win |
@1.75
|
54.6% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.50
|
24.1% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
West Brom Win |
@4.60
|
17.5% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.83
|
53.7% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@1.91
|
46.3% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.91
|
54.7% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.93
|
45.3% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.30
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@3.55
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@3.40
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.37
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Middlesbrough vs West Brom Team Stats
Middlesbrough FC
Position
12
Played
2
Record
1W-0D-1L
Goals F/A
3/3
Avg Goals Scored
1.50
Points
3
Overall Form
LWWLL
Home Form
WWDWW
Home Record
1W-0D-0L
West Bromwich Albion FC
Position
2
Played
2
Record
2W-0D-0L
Goals F/A
5/2
Avg Goals Scored
2.50
Points
6
Overall Form
WWLDW
Away Form
WWLW
Away Record
1W-0D-0L
Middlesbrough vs West Brom Head to Head
6 Home Wins
2 Draws
2 Away Wins
2.7
Avg Goals
6/10
BTTS
4/10
Over 2.5
2026-01-16
Middlesbrough 3-2 West Brom
2025-09-19
Middlesbrough 2-1 West Brom
2025-01-21
Middlesbrough 2-0 West Brom
2024-10-01
Middlesbrough 1-0 West Brom
2023-12-23
Middlesbrough 1-0 West Brom
2023-08-26
Middlesbrough 2-4 West Brom
2023-02-25
Middlesbrough 0-2 West Brom
2022-07-30
Middlesbrough 1-1 West Brom
2022-02-22
Middlesbrough 2-1 West Brom
2021-11-06
Middlesbrough 1-1 West Brom
Full Middlesbrough vs West Brom head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
6.1%
1-0
4.8%
2-0
3.0%
3-1
2.5%
3-2
2.5%
3-0
1.3%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 10 priced markets
-
Over 0.5 second half goals
83%
@1.25
William Hill
-
Middlesbrough or West Brom (double chance)
83%
@1.29
William Hill
-
West Brom under 1.5 goals
82%
@1.28
Betano
-
Over 1.5 goals
81%
@1.30
Bet365
-
Middlesbrough under 2.5 goals
80%
@1.29
Betano
-
Middlesbrough over 1 goals
79%
@1.27
Marathon Bet
-
Under 2 second half goals
78%
@1.28
Marathon Bet
-
Under 3.5 goals
77%
@1.37
Betano
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
74%
@1.44
Betano
-
Under 1.5 first half goals
71%
@1.42
10Bet
Build a slip from these markets →