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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gillingham Win | 41.8% | 50.8% | 9 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 48.0% | 53.2% | 5 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Three points on the line and a story to write. Gillingham host Walsall.
Gillingham take on Walsall in the League Two. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Gillingham will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Walsall travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
A razor-thin margin: Walsall at 43%, but the draw sits at 25%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
Strong value spotted: Walsall to win at @3.10 (our model: 43%, bookmakers imply: 32%). That's a 11% edge over the bookmakers' pricing. one of the bigger discrepancies we've found today.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Gillingham average 1.2 goals per game and Walsall manage 1.0. Combined that's just 2.2. We make it only 48% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 65% of Gillingham's home games and 57% of Walsall's away matches.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Gillingham Win | @2.20 | 41.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.25 | 25.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Walsall Win | @3.10 | 43.1% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.00 | 48.0% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.75 | 52.0% | William Hill |
Our model makes Walsall the favourite with a 43.1% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Gillingham @ 2.20, Draw @ 3.25, Walsall @ 3.10. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Gillingham vs Walsall kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 in the League Two.
Our top prediction is Walsall to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.