01The read
Analysing Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF: Who Wins?
Tromso 57%, the draw 22%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 17%. That's the shape of this one.
Tromso (3rd, 57 pts) host Sarpsborg 08 FF (9th, 41 pts) in the Eliteserien. Both sides will be targeting three points here.
Our pick
Tracking this league
Our PickTromso to win at @1.62. Model probability 57% vs implied 62%. The market is 5pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Key facts
🏟
Home Fortress
Tromso have won 10 of 15 at home (66%). They rarely slip up on their own patch
🎯
Better Chances
Tromso come out at +1.1 a game on chance quality vs Sarpsborg 08 FF's -0.8. A clear gap underneath the results
🔥
Chances Flowing
Tromso creating chances worth 2.6 a game over their last 5. High-quality openings at will
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 60% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
Tromso will be looking to make home advantage count (W10 D1 L4 at home). Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record reads W6 D4 L5. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. Tromso have been even sharper lately. The chances they create are worth 2.6 a game over their last 5 compared to a season average of 2.0. They're creating more as the season goes on.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Tromso create chances worth 2.0 a game (and give up chances worth 0.9), leaving them +1.1 a game on the balance. Sarpsborg 08 FF create 1.7 (giving up 2.4) for a balance of -0.8. The underlying numbers clearly favour Tromso. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Tromso are trending upwards. Their chances are worth 2.6 a game over the last 5 vs 2.0 for the season. They're in a real attacking groove.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Tromso are scoring 1.7 a game (1.6 of those at home) and Sarpsborg 08 FF manage 1.6 (1.6 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 60%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 53%. Their past meetings back this up. These two average 3.4 goals when they meet, with 7 of the last 10 producing three or more. The chance-quality data backs the goals case. Tromso create chances worth 2.0 a game and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.7. Combined, that's 3.7 a game from open play alone.
▸ Team news & context
In the last 10 meetings: Tromso have won 4, Sarpsborg 08 FF 4, with 2 draws. These fixtures average 3.4 goals per game. 7 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1 Tromso, Tromso 4-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF, Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1 Tromso.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Tromso HT
2.00
-
Draw HT
2.45
-
Sarpsborg 08 FF HT
4.80
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 Tromso · xG
For: 2.01/g
Against: 0.92/g
📊 Sarpsborg 08 FF · xG
For: 1.66/g
Against: 2.42/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Tromso Win |
@1.62
|
56.9% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.90
|
22.3% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win |
@4.75
|
17.0% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.67
|
52.5% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.10
|
47.5% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.67
|
60.3% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.40
|
39.7% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.20
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@4.96
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.62
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.57
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Team Stats
Tromso
Position
3
Played
30
Record
18W-3D-9L
Goals F/A
50/36
Avg Goals Scored
1.70
Points
57
Overall Form
LWWWD
Home Form
WDWLW
Home Record
10W-1D-4L
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Position
9
Played
30
Record
11W-8D-11L
Goals F/A
48/50
Avg Goals Scored
1.60
Points
41
Overall Form
WLLDWD
Away Record
6W-4D-5L
Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Head to Head
4 Home Wins
2 Draws
4 Away Wins
3.4
Avg Goals
5/10
BTTS
7/10
Over 2.5
2026-04-19
Tromso 1-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF
2025-11-02
Tromso 4-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF
2025-05-25
Tromso 1-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF
2025-02-13
Tromso 3-3 Sarpsborg 08 FF
2024-12-01
Tromso 1-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF
2024-04-28
Tromso 0-3 Sarpsborg 08 FF
2023-08-26
Tromso 0-4 Sarpsborg 08 FF
2023-06-04
Tromso 2-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF
2022-10-23
Tromso 1-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF
2022-04-24
Tromso 2-5 Sarpsborg 08 FF
Full Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
9.1%
3-1
5.2%
3-0
3.7%
3-2
3.6%
4-1
2.2%
4-0
1.6%
4-2
1.5%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 10 priced markets
-
Under 2 first half goals
85%
@1.18
Marathon Bet
-
Tromso or Sarpsborg 08 FF (double chance)
83%
@1.23
Betano
-
Over 2 goals
83%
@1.21
Marathon Bet
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
82%
@1.32
Betano
-
Under 4 goals
82%
@1.22
Marathon Bet
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
80%
@1.33
Betano
-
Sarpsborg 08 FF under 1.5 goals
80%
@1.35
Pinnacle
-
Over 1 second half goals
80%
@1.25
Marathon Bet
-
Tromso under 2.5 goals
71%
@1.45
Betano
-
Sarpsborg 08 FF over 0.5 goals
71%
@1.53
Bet365
Build a slip from these markets →