Player Form
Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.
S
S. Surridge
1+ Shots on Target
69% (model)
S. Surridge averages 1.31 SoT/match (16 apps), away vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
H
H. Mukhtar
1+ Shots on Target
65% (model)
H. Mukhtar averages 1.18 SoT/match (22 apps), away vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
D
D. Sallói
1+ Shots on Target
65% (model)
D. Sallói averages 0.95 SoT/match (22 apps), home vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
J
J. Sargent
1+ Shots on Target
55% (model)
J. Sargent averages 0.73 SoT/match (15 apps), home vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
S
S. Surridge
Anytime Scorer
54% (model)
S. Surridge on 0.81 goals/match (16 apps), away vs opp conceding 1.40 goals/game
Projections from club-season form only, informational, never recorded or graded, and outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Match Stats
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
-
Over 8.5 Match Corners
49% (model)
Corners: Toronto FC avg 5.0 for/5.5 against, Nashville SC avg 4.3 for/2.3 against → expected 8.6 match corners
-
Over 3.5 Match Cards
44% (model)
Cards: Toronto FC avg 2.4/game, Nashville SC avg 1.0/game → expected 3.4 match cards
-
Over 22.5 Match Fouls
45% (model)
Fouls: Toronto FC avg 12.4/game, Nashville SC avg 9.7/game → expected 22.1 match fouls
-
Over 22.5 Match Shots
27% (model)
Shots: Toronto FC avg 12.3/game, Nashville SC avg 7.7/game → expected 19.9 match shots
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
01The read
Can Nashville SC Get the Job Done at Toronto FC?
The model makes Nashville SC 48% favourites here. Toronto FC carry the 27% upset.
Toronto FC have taken six points from their last five; Nashville SC have won three of their last five. The visitors bring the sharper form into this MLS tie.
D. Sallói has been Toronto FC's spearhead, with 6 goals and 4 assists in 22 appearances, averaging 0.95 shots on target per game. S. Surridge has been Nashville SC's main threat, with 13 goals and 0 assists in 16 appearances, averaging 1.31 shots on target per game.
Our pick
Tracking this league
Our PickThree or more goals at @1.57. Model probability 61% vs implied 64%. Priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Key men
D
D. Sallói
Toronto FC · Midfielder
6 goals · 4 assists in 22 apps
1.0 shots on target a game
S
S. Surridge
Nashville SC · Attacker
13 goals in 16 apps
1.3 shots on target a game
Key facts
⚠
Home Struggles
Toronto FC have won just 3 of 17 at home. No fortress here, and visitors will fancy their chances
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 82% of Toronto FC's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 61% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
Both sets of fans can dream here: this is two in-form sides on a collision course. Toronto FC come in on a D-W-D-L-D run, Nashville SC have gone W-W-D-L-W, and neither will fear the other. When form meets form like this, something has to give, and whichever way it breaks, it should be a proper occasion. Toronto FC's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf. A concern for Nashville SC: they're giving up chances worth 2.1 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.7 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Toronto FC create chances worth 1.1 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them -0.4 a game on the balance. Nashville SC create 1.8 (giving up 1.7) for a balance of +0.1. On the quality of chances, Nashville SC look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. Nashville SC's defence is giving up chances. Worth 2.1 a game over their last 5 vs 1.7 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Toronto FC are scoring 1.1 a game (1.0 of those at home) and Nashville SC manage 1.6 (1.2 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 61%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 57%.
▸ Team news & context
In the last 9 meetings: Toronto FC have won 2, Nashville SC 4, with 3 draws. These fixtures average 2.6 goals per game. 4 of the last 9 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Nashville SC 1-0 Toronto FC, Toronto FC 1-2 Nashville SC, Toronto FC 1-2 Nashville SC.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Toronto FC HT
3.10
-
Draw HT
2.40
-
Nashville SC HT
2.62
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Toronto FC · xG
For: 1.07/g
Against: 1.44/g
📊 Nashville SC · xG
For: 1.77/g
Against: 1.67/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Toronto FC vs Nashville SC Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Toronto FC Win |
@2.80
|
27.3% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.75
|
23.0% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Nashville SC Win |
@2.15
|
47.6% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.50
|
56.8% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.45
|
43.2% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.57
|
61.0% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.35
|
39.0% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.17
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@5.00
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.38
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.53
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Toronto FC vs Nashville SC Team Stats
Toronto FC
Played
34
Record
6W-14D-14L
Goals F/A
37/44
Avg Goals Scored
1.10
Overall Form
DWDLD
Home Form
DWLD
Home Record
3W-7D-7L
Nashville SC
Played
37
Record
17W-6D-14L
Goals F/A
61/53
Avg Goals Scored
1.60
Overall Form
WWDLW
Away Form
WDLWD
Away Record
5W-3D-11L
Toronto FC vs Nashville SC Head to Head
2 Home Wins
3 Draws
4 Away Wins
2.6
Avg Goals
6/9
BTTS
4/9
Over 2.5
2025-07-20
Toronto 0-1 Nashville SC
2025-05-24
Toronto 1-2 Nashville SC
2024-06-19
Toronto 1-2 Nashville SC
2024-05-16
Toronto 0-2 Nashville SC
2023-06-10
Toronto 1-1 Nashville SC
2023-04-09
Toronto 0-0 Nashville SC
2022-08-07
Toronto 4-3 Nashville SC
2021-09-18
Toronto 2-1 Nashville SC
2021-08-01
Toronto 1-1 Nashville SC
Full Toronto FC vs Nashville SC head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-2
8.8%
1-3
4.3%
0-3
3.4%
2-3
2.7%
1-4
1.5%
0-4
1.2%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Under 2 first half goals
84%
@1.19
Marathon Bet
-
Toronto FC over 0.5 goals
82%
@1.25
Bet365
-
Over 2 goals
82%
@1.22
Marathon Bet
-
Under 4 goals
82%
@1.22
Marathon Bet
-
Nashville SC under 2.5 goals
81%
@1.25
Bet365
-
Toronto FC under 2 goals
81%
@1.23
Marathon Bet
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
81%
@1.28
Bet365
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
80%
@1.29
BetVictor
-
Toronto FC or Nashville SC (double chance)
80%
@1.28
Bet365
-
Over 1 second half goals
79%
@1.26
Marathon Bet
-
Nashville SC over 1 goals
77%
@1.30
Marathon Bet
-
Nashville SC or Draw (double chance)
75%
@1.40
William Hill
Build a slip from these markets →