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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northampton Town Win | 43.8% | 50.0% | 6 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 49.3% | 54.6% | 5 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
The key duel: Northampton Town's attack against Swindon Town's back line.
A League Two fixture between Northampton Town and Swindon Town. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Northampton Town will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Swindon Town travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
A razor-thin margin: Northampton Town at 44%, but the draw sits at 27%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Northampton Town average 1.0 goals per game and Swindon Town manage 1.0. Combined that's just 2.0. We make it only 49% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
Both teams score in 52% of Northampton Town's home games and 52% of Swindon Town's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Northampton Town Win | @2.15 | 43.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.25 | 26.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Swindon Town Win | @3.25 | 29.7% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.91 | 49.3% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.83 | 50.7% | William Hill |
Our model makes Northampton Town the favourite with a 43.8% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Northampton Town @ 2.15, Draw @ 3.25, Swindon Town @ 3.25. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Northampton Town vs Swindon Town kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 in the League Two.
Our top prediction is Northampton Town to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.