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The model makes Motherwell 41% favourites here. St Mirren carry the 32% upset.
St Mirren (10th, 30 pts) host Motherwell (4th, 54 pts) in the Scottish Premiership. Both sides will be targeting three points here.
R. Charles-Cook has been Motherwell's main threat, with 1 goals and 0 assists in 5 appearances, averaging 0.20 shots on target per game.
St Mirren will be looking to make home advantage count (W6 D6 L8 at home). Motherwell's away record reads W6 D7 L6. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. St Mirren's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf.
St Mirren average 0.8 goals per game and Motherwell manage 1.6. Combined that's just 2.4. We make it 49% for three or more, so there's no strong lean on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 48%.
Motherwell prefer to keep things tight (0.9 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for St Mirren against this setup.
In the last 10 meetings: St Mirren have won 2, Motherwell 4, with 4 draws. These fixtures average 2.3 goals per game. 4 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: St Mirren 0-5 Motherwell, Motherwell 2-0 St Mirren, Motherwell 1-4 St Mirren.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | St Mirren Win | @2.80 | 32.1% | Betano |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.30 | 28.1% | Betano |
| Match Result | Motherwell Win | @2.89 | 40.8% | Pinnacle |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.75 | 47.9% | Betano |
| BTTS | No | @2.02 | 52.1% | Betano |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.02 | 48.6% | Betano |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.86 | 51.4% | Betano |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.34 | - | Betano |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.56 | - | Betano |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.45 | - | Betano |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.32 | - | Betano |
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Our model makes Motherwell the favourite with a 40.8% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: St Mirren @ 2.80, Draw @ 3.30, Motherwell @ 2.89. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
St Mirren vs Motherwell kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 15:00 in the Scottish Premiership.