03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Over 2.5 Goals |
46.8% |
58.8% |
12 pts under
|
| Slavia Praha Win |
31.5% |
40.0% |
8 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
01The read
Can RC Lens Get the Job Done at Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have failed to score in 63% of their games, and now the model gives RC Lens a 41% chance on the road.
RC Lens slight edge (41%) | One side to keep the other out (70%) | Predicted: 1-2
Confidence
★★★★★
Slavia Praha are unbeaten in their last six; RC Lens have won three of their last five. Form gives little away going into this Champions League tie.
Our verdict
Marginal call: RC Lens at just 41%. With the draw at 27%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for RC Lens, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key facts
😶
Blunt Attack
Slavia Praha fail to score in 63% of their games. Creating chances has been a real problem
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 67% of Slavia Praha's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
▸ Form & goals
Goals are a tough one to call here. Slavia Praha are scoring 0.6 a game (1.0 of those at home) and RC Lens manage 2.1 (2.1 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 47%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Both teams scoring is unlikely here (30%).
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 67% of Slavia Praha's home games and 59% of RC Lens's away matches.
▸ Team news & context
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
Slavia Praha need points desperately. Sitting 34th in the table, every match feels like a cup final now.
RC Lens have goals in them (2.1 per game) but their record at the back (1.4 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 1-2 (10%) and 0-2 (10%).
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Slavia Praha vs RC Lens Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Slavia Praha Win |
@2.70
|
31.5% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.30
|
27.0% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
RC Lens Win |
@2.50
|
41.4% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.80
|
46.8% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.00
|
53.2% |
William Hill |
05The numbers
Slavia Praha vs RC Lens Team Stats
Slavia Praha
Position
34
Played
8
Record
0W-3D-5L
Goals F/A
5/19
Avg Goals Scored
0.60
Points
3
Overall Form
WDDWWW
Home Record
0W-2D-2L
RC Lens
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-2
9.8%
0-2
9.6%
1-1
8.6%
0-1
8.5%
1-3
7.4%
0-3
7.3%
2-2
5.0%
2-1
4.4%