Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?

Our model rates SC Freiburg as the favourite with a 45.7% win probability. The full 1X2 split: SC Freiburg 45.7%, draw 27.4%, Werder Bremen 26.9%.

Where can I watch SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?

Check official Bundesliga broadcaster listings (Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Premier Sports, BBC, ITV) for live TV coverage. UK streaming details are confirmed by rights holders closer to kickoff.

How many goals are expected in SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 57.8% probability and Under 2.5 goals 42.2%. The lean is towards a high-scoring game.

70% verified · 810 picks Bundesliga Sunday 30 August 2026, 14:30

SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen Predictions & Odds

S SC Freiburg 45.7% @2.00

VS Draw 27.4%

W Werder Bremen 26.9% @3.50

Our model call Leans SC Freiburg, but only just A 46% call, draw at 27%.

★★★

Match result modelmarket

SC Freiburg 46% 2.00 Draw 27% 3.40 Werder Bremen 27% 3.50

Goals modelmarket

Under 2.5 42% 2.14 Over 2.5 58% 1.73 Over 1.5 @1.22

Both teams to score modelmarket

No 49% 2.20 Yes 51% 1.65

30+ rated markets on this game, every leg tracked in public Build this bet →

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03Model vs the market

Our Model vs The Market

Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.

Market	Our model	Bookies imply	Difference
Both Teams to Score	51.1%	62.5%	11 pts under
SC Freiburg Win	45.7%	51.8%	6 pts under
Over 2.5 Goals	57.8%	58.5%	1 pts under

What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.

Key Stats

🎯 Both teams scored in 82% of SC Freiburg home games

01The read

SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen: Who Takes the Bragging Rights?

The model makes SC Freiburg 46% favourites here. Werder Bremen carry the 27% upset.

SC Freiburg slight edge (46%) | Predicted: 2-1 Confidence ★★★★★

SC Freiburg have taken 7 points from their last five; Werder Bremen have lost three in a row. Form gives little away going into this Bundesliga tie.

Our verdict

A razor-thin margin: SC Freiburg at 46%, but the draw sits at 27%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.

Where's the value?

The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.

Key facts

📊

H2H Dominance SC Freiburg have won 7 of the last 10 meetings. History firmly favours the hosts

📉

Cold Run Werder Bremen have lost their last 3. Confidence in that dressing room will be low

⚽

Open Games Both teams score in 62% of SC Freiburg's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet

🎯

Goals Lean We make it 58% for three or more goals in this one

▸ Form & goals

One thing to keep in mind about SC Freiburg. They're scoring 1.8 goals per game but the quality of chances they create only works out at 1.3. Scoring that much more than the chances suggest (+0.4), that kind of hot finishing usually cools off, so their results may be flattering their actual play.

xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.

SC Freiburg create chances worth 1.3 a game (and give up chances worth 1.7), leaving them -0.3 a game on the balance. Werder Bremen create 1.2 (giving up 1.7) for a balance of -0.6. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. SC Freiburg are scoring 1.8 goals a game off chances worth just 1.3. That's +0.4 more than the chances suggest: finishing hot. History says this kind of run usually cools off. A worry for SC Freiburg: the chances they're creating lately are worth 1.0 a game, well below their 1.3 season figure. The attacking output has dipped.

Goals are a tough one to call here. SC Freiburg are scoring 1.8 a game (1.8 of those at home) and Werder Bremen manage 1.0 (1.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 58%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 51%.

Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 82% of SC Freiburg's home games and 47% of Werder Bremen's away matches.

▸ Team news & context

In the last 10 meetings: SC Freiburg have won 7, Werder Bremen 1, with 2 draws. These fixtures average 2.2 goals per game. 4 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: SC Freiburg 1-0 Werder Bremen, Werder Bremen 0-3 SC Freiburg, SC Freiburg 5-0 Werder Bremen, Werder Bremen 0-1 SC Freiburg.

▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half

If you like SC Freiburg but want a bit of cover, the Home/Draw double chance at @1.30 , which pays out if SC Freiburg win or draw, covers 73% of the outcomes. Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (9%) and 3-1 (5%).

First Half Result

SC Freiburg HT 2.50
Draw HT 2.25
Werder Bremen HT 3.70

Team Intel

📊 SC Freiburg · xG

For: 1.34/g Against: 1.66/g

⚠️ Outscoring xG by 0.36/g, possibly running hot

📊 Werder Bremen · xG

For: 1.17/g Against: 1.74/g

Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market

The complete price grid across all bookmakers.

SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen Odds Comparison

Market	Selection	Odds	Probability	Bookmaker
Match Result	SC Freiburg Win	@2.00	45.7%	William Hill
Match Result	Draw	@3.40	27.4%	William Hill
Match Result	Werder Bremen Win	@3.50	26.9%	William Hill
BTTS	Yes	@1.65	51.1%	William Hill
BTTS	No	@2.20	48.9%	William Hill
Goals	Over 2.5	@1.73	57.8%	Bet365
Goals	Under 2.5	@2.14	42.2%	Bet365
Goals	Over 1.5	@1.22	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 1.5	@4.33	-	Bet365
Goals	Over 3.5	@2.75	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 3.5	@1.44	-	Bet365

05The numbers

Recent Form

SC Freiburg

1L streak

Last 5 LWLWD

At home LWWDW

Clean sheets 18% BTTS 62% FTS 26%

Werder Bremen

3L streak

Last 5 LLLDW

On the road LD

Clean sheets 18% BTTS 47% FTS 38%

SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen Head to Head

7 Home Wins 2 Draws 1 Away Wins

2.2 Avg Goals

3/10 BTTS

4/10 Over 2.5

2026-02-07 SC Freiburg 1-0 Werder Bremen

2025-09-20 SC Freiburg 3-0 Werder Bremen

2025-02-21 SC Freiburg 5-0 Werder Bremen

2024-10-05 SC Freiburg 1-0 Werder Bremen

2024-01-27 SC Freiburg 1-3 Werder Bremen

2023-08-26 SC Freiburg 1-0 Werder Bremen

2023-04-16 SC Freiburg 2-1 Werder Bremen

2022-10-22 SC Freiburg 2-0 Werder Bremen

2021-02-13 SC Freiburg 0-0 Werder Bremen

2020-10-17 SC Freiburg 1-1 Werder Bremen

Full SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen head-to-head history →

Most Likely Scorelines

MOST LIKELY 2-1 9.0%

3-1 5.1%

3-2 3.7%

3-0 3.5%

4-1 2.1%

4-0 1.5%

4-2 1.5%

Full Market Breakdown

Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles 12 priced markets

Under 12.5 corners 83% @1.20 Unibet
Under 2.5 second half goals 83% @1.26 Betano
Over 1.5 goals 83% @1.26 Betano
SC Freiburg under 7.5 corners 83% @1.21 Unibet
SC Freiburg or Werder Bremen (double chance) 82% @1.33 Bet365
SC Freiburg under 2.5 goals 82% @1.25 Marathon Bet
SC Freiburg or Draw (double chance) 81% @1.32 1xBet
Werder Bremen over 2.5 corners 81% @1.23 Unibet
Over 7.5 corners 79% @1.26 Unibet
SC Freiburg over 3.5 corners 78% @1.29 Unibet
Over 0.5 first half goals 77% @1.39 Betano
Werder Bremen over 0.5 goals 75% @1.35 Marathon Bet

Build a slip from these markets →

Build your own bet

Our SC Freiburg v Werder Bremen builder

Our model's suggested selections (each one's a "leg"). Tap to build it, then place with your own bookmaker.

1 No Draw 77% @ 1.30
2 Over 1.5 Goals 76% @ 1.32

@1.71 £10 returns £17.11

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verified hit rate across 810 graded picks, every one logged before kick-off.

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SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen: FAQs

Who will win SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?

Our model makes SC Freiburg the favourite with a 45.7% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.

What are the best odds for SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?

Best available odds: SC Freiburg @ 2.00, Draw @ 3.40, Werder Bremen @ 3.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.

What time does SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen kick off?

SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 14:30 in the Bundesliga.

Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?

Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 51.1% probability.

SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen prediction and betting tips?

Our top prediction is SC Freiburg to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.