01The read
Bragging Rights at Stake: Sao Paulo vs RB Bragantino
The model makes Sao Paulo 46% favourites here. RB Bragantino carry the 29% upset.
A Brasileirão Série A clash between two sides separated by just 2 places in the table. Sao Paulo (8th, 51 pts) and RB Bragantino (10th, 48 pts) both have plenty to play for.
Key facts
🤝
Draw Merchants
4 draws from 10 meetings. Stalemates are the pattern here
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 73% of Sao Paulo's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
▸ Form & goals
Neither side arrives in vintage form. Sao Paulo have gone D-L-D-D-L, RB Bragantino's D-D-D-D-L reads much the same, but that's exactly the kind of game where one moment settles it and a whole fanbase goes home happy. Tight, tense, and there for the taking for whoever holds their nerve. One thing to keep in mind about Sao Paulo. They're scoring 1.1 goals per game but the quality of chances they create only works out at 0.9. Scoring that much more than the chances suggest (+0.3), that kind of hot finishing usually cools off, so their results may be flattering their actual play.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Sao Paulo create chances worth 0.9 a game (and give up chances worth 1.8), leaving them -0.9 a game on the balance. RB Bragantino create 1.2 (giving up 1.2) for a balance of 0.0. On the quality of chances, RB Bragantino look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. Sao Paulo are scoring 1.1 goals a game off chances worth just 0.9. That's +0.3 more than the chances suggest: finishing hot. History says this kind of run usually cools off.
Sao Paulo average 1.1 goals per game and RB Bragantino manage 1.2. Combined that's just 2.3. We make it only 41% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 45%.
▸ Team news & context
Neither side has much to play for in the grand scheme. no European places within reach and relegation isn't a concern. That can make for an unpredictable game with less pressure on both sides.
In the last 10 meetings: Sao Paulo have won 4, RB Bragantino 2, with 4 draws. These fixtures average 2.1 goals per game. 4 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: RB Bragantino 1-2 Sao Paulo, RB Bragantino 1-2 Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo 0-1 RB Bragantino.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Sao Paulo HT
2.70
-
Draw HT
2.05
-
RB Bragantino HT
3.90
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 Sao Paulo · xG
For: 0.87/g
Against: 1.78/g
⚠️ Outscoring xG by 0.33/g, possibly running hot
📊 RB Bragantino · xG
For: 1.19/g
Against: 1.15/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Sao Paulo vs RB Bragantino Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Sao Paulo Win |
@2.10
|
45.7% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.00
|
25.1% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
RB Bragantino Win |
@3.40
|
29.1% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.95
|
45.4% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@1.75
|
54.6% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@2.25
|
40.8% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.71
|
59.2% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.40
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@3.10
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@4.33
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.25
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Sao Paulo vs RB Bragantino Team Stats
Sao Paulo
Position
8
Played
38
Record
14W-9D-15L
Goals F/A
43/47
Avg Goals Scored
1.10
Points
51
Overall Form
DLDDL
Home Form
DDLDD
Home Record
10W-4D-5L
RB Bragantino
Position
10
Played
38
Record
14W-6D-18L
Goals F/A
45/57
Avg Goals Scored
1.20
Points
48
Overall Form
DDDDL
Away Form
DDLL
Away Record
5W-2D-12L
Sao Paulo vs RB Bragantino Head to Head
4 Home Wins
4 Draws
2 Away Wins
2.1
Avg Goals
5/10
BTTS
4/10
Over 2.5
2026-03-15
Sao Paulo 2-1 RB Bragantino
2026-02-21
Sao Paulo 2-1 RB Bragantino
2025-11-09
Sao Paulo 0-1 RB Bragantino
2025-07-17
Sao Paulo 2-2 RB Bragantino
2025-02-08
Sao Paulo 0-1 RB Bragantino
2024-11-20
Sao Paulo 1-1 RB Bragantino
2024-07-06
Sao Paulo 2-0 RB Bragantino
2024-02-17
Sao Paulo 2-2 RB Bragantino
2023-11-08
Sao Paulo 1-0 RB Bragantino
2023-07-09
Sao Paulo 0-0 RB Bragantino
Full Sao Paulo vs RB Bragantino head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-0
10.7%
2-0
6.9%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Under 3.5 goals
85%
@1.25
Unibet
-
Sao Paulo over 3.5 corners
85%
@1.18
Unibet
-
Sao Paulo under 8.5 corners
85%
@1.18
Unibet
-
RB Bragantino under 6.5 corners
85%
@1.18
Unibet
-
Sao Paulo under 2 goals
83%
@1.20
Marathon Bet
-
Under 13.5 corners
83%
@1.20
Unibet
-
RB Bragantino over 2.5 corners
83%
@1.20
Unibet
-
Sao Paulo over 0.5 goals
81%
@1.28
Bet365
-
Over 0.5 second half goals
81%
@1.33
888Sport
-
Sao Paulo or Draw (double chance)
80%
@1.31
Betano
-
RB Bragantino under 1.5 goals
80%
@1.31
Betano
-
Sao Paulo or RB Bragantino (double chance)
78%
@1.36
Bet365
Build a slip from these markets →