03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Manchester United Win |
74.0% |
93.5% |
19 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
77.2% |
82.0% |
5 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Key Stats
🎯
Both teams scored in 68% of Manchester United home games
01The read
Manchester United vs Sabah FK: Match Preview & Prediction
The model makes Manchester United 74% favourites here. Sabah FK carry the 13% upset.
Manchester United to win (74%) | Three or more goals likely (77%) | Predicted: 2-1
Confidence
★★★★★
The bookmakers open Manchester United at @1.10 for this Champions League tie, with Sabah FK out at @23.00.
Our verdict
Manchester United to win at 74%. Every metric we track (form, league position, home/away splits, the quality of chances) points the same way. About as clear as it gets today.
Our pick
Our PickManchester United to win at @1.10. Model probability 74% vs implied 91%. The market is 17pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Key facts
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 71% of Manchester United's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
▸ Form & goals
Manchester United average 2.3 goals per game and Sabah FK manage 0.0. Combined that's just 2.3. Even so, we make it 77% for three or more. The model sees more goals here than the season averages suggest.
▸ Team news & context
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
Manchester United are all-out attack: 2.3 goals a game, but they leak 1.3 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Sabah FK, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Sabah FK prefer to keep things tight (0.0 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Manchester United against this setup.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (7%) and 3-0 (4%).
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 Manchester United · xG
For: 1.64/g
Against: 1.54/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Manchester United vs Sabah FK Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Manchester United Win |
@1.10
|
74.0% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@10.00
|
13.4% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Sabah FK Win |
@23.00
|
12.5% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.22
|
77.2% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@4.00
|
22.8% |
William Hill |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
7.1%
3-0
4.2%
3-1
2.7%
4-0
1.2%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 1 priced markets
-
Over 2.5 goals
82%
@1.22
William Hill
Build a slip from these markets →