Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain?

Our model rates Rennes as the favourite with a 59.8% win probability. The full 1X2 split: Rennes 59.8%, draw 22.8%, Paris Saint Germain 17.3%.

Where can I watch Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain?

Check official Ligue 1 broadcaster listings (Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Premier Sports, BBC, ITV) for live TV coverage. UK streaming details are confirmed by rights holders closer to kickoff.

How many goals are expected in Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain?

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 66.5% probability and Under 2.5 goals 33.5%. The lean is towards a high-scoring game.

69% verified · 778 picks Ligue 1 Sunday 23 August 2026, 19:45

Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain Predictions & Odds

R Rennes 59.8% @1.50

VS Draw 22.8%

P Paris Saint Germain 17.3% @5.00

Our model call Clear favourites: Rennes A 60% call, draw at 23%.

★★★

Match result modelmarket

Rennes 60% 1.50 Draw 23% 4.40 Paris Saint Germain 17% 5.00

Goals modelmarket

Under 2.5 34% 2.90 Over 2.5 66% 1.44 Over 1.5 @1.12

Both teams to score modelmarket

No 44% 2.30 Yes 56% 1.60

30+ rated markets on this game, every leg tracked in public Build this bet →

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03Model vs the market

Our Model vs The Market

Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.

Market	Our model	Bookies imply	Difference
Rennes Win	59.8%	70.9%	11 pts under
Both Teams to Score	55.7%	66.7%	11 pts under
Over 2.5 Goals	66.5%	71.4%	5 pts under

What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.

Key Stats

🎯 Both teams scored in 71% of Rennes home games

01The read

Rennes and Paris Saint Germain Promise Fireworks. Preview & Prediction

The model makes Rennes 60% favourites here. Paris Saint Germain carry the 17% upset.

Rennes slight edge (60%) | Three or more goals likely (67%) | Predicted: 2-1 Confidence ★★★★★

Rennes have lost three in a row; Paris Saint Germain have taken 8 points from their last five. Form gives little away going into this Ligue 1 tie.

Our verdict

The data leans towards Rennes (60%), but there's enough doubt to stay careful. Paris Saint Germain have the tools to make this uncomfortable.

Our pick

Our PickRennes to win at @1.50. Model probability 60% vs implied 67%. The market is 7pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.

Model60%

Market67%

Key facts

🔥

Chances Flowing Rennes creating chances worth 2.1 a game over their last 5. High-quality openings at will

📉

Home Wobble Rennes arrive off 3 straight defeats. The home crowd will need something early

⚽

Open Games Both teams score in 62% of Paris Saint Germain's matches this season

▸ Form & goals

Both sides are prolific in front of goal. Rennes average 2.0 per game and Paris Saint Germain chip in with 2.0. Expect an open, attacking contest. The gap in chance quality is clear: Paris Saint Germain come out at +1.1 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to +0.2. that's a real edge in the quality of chances. A concern for Paris Saint Germain: they're giving up chances worth 1.4 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.0 for the season). The defence is creaking.

xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.

Rennes create chances worth 1.9 a game (and give up chances worth 1.7), leaving them +0.2 a game on the balance. Paris Saint Germain create 2.2 (giving up 1.0) for a balance of +1.1. On the quality of chances, Paris Saint Germain look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. Paris Saint Germain's defence is giving up chances. Worth 1.4 a game over their last 5 vs 1.0 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.

Goals look likely here. Rennes average 2.0 per game (2.0 at home) and Paris Saint Germain chip in with 2.0 (2.0 away). Defensively, Rennes concede 2.2 at home and Paris Saint Germain leak 1.3 on the road. We make it 67% for three or more goals. One of the stronger cases for goals today. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 56%. Two or more goals at @1.12 is a steadier alternative for accas. The chance-quality data backs the goals case. Rennes create chances worth 1.9 a game and Paris Saint Germain 2.2. Combined, that's 4.0 a game from open play alone.

Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 71% of Rennes's home games and 71% of Paris Saint Germain's away matches.

▸ Team news & context

Rennes are all-out attack: 2.0 goals a game, but they leak 2.2 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Paris Saint Germain, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Paris Saint Germain have goals in them (2.0 per game) but their record at the back (1.3 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end. Don't underestimate the visitors. Paris Saint Germain create chances worth 2.2 a game and Rennes give up chances worth 1.7 at home. The away side could control the ball here.

In the last 10 meetings: Rennes have won 3, Paris Saint Germain 6, with 1 draw. These fixtures average 2.9 goals per game. 5 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Rennes 3-1 Paris Saint Germain, Paris Saint Germain 5-0 Rennes, Rennes 1-4 Paris Saint Germain, Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Rennes.

▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half

If you like Rennes but want a bit of cover, the Home/Draw double chance at @1.15 , which pays out if Rennes win or draw, covers 83% of the outcomes. Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (7%) and 3-2 (4%).

First Half Result

Rennes HT 1.85
Draw HT 2.62
Paris Saint Germain HT 5.00

Team Intel

📊 Rennes · xG

For: 1.89/g Against: 1.66/g

📊 Paris Saint Germain · xG

For: 2.15/g Against: 1.01/g

Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market

The complete price grid across all bookmakers.

Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain Odds Comparison

Market	Selection	Odds	Probability	Bookmaker
Match Result	Rennes Win	@1.50	59.8%	William Hill
Match Result	Draw	@4.40	22.8%	William Hill
Match Result	Paris Saint Germain Win	@5.00	17.3%	William Hill
BTTS	Yes	@1.60	55.7%	William Hill
BTTS	No	@2.30	44.3%	William Hill
Goals	Over 2.5	@1.44	66.5%	Bet365
Goals	Under 2.5	@2.90	33.5%	Bet365
Goals	Over 1.5	@1.12	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 1.5	@6.50	-	Bet365
Goals	Over 3.5	@2.10	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 3.5	@1.80	-	Bet365

05The numbers

Recent Form

Rennes

3L streak

Last 6 LLLDWW

Clean sheets 29% BTTS 59% FTS 18%

Paris Saint Germain

1 unbeaten

Last 5 DLWWD

On the road LWDW

Clean sheets 24% BTTS 62% FTS 26%

Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain Head to Head

3 Home Wins 1 Draws 6 Away Wins

2.9 Avg Goals

5/10 BTTS

5/10 Over 2.5

2026-02-13 Rennes 3-1 Paris Saint Germain

2025-12-06 Rennes 0-5 Paris Saint Germain

2025-03-08 Rennes 1-4 Paris Saint Germain

2024-09-27 Rennes 1-3 Paris Saint Germain

2024-04-03 Rennes 0-1 Paris Saint Germain

2024-02-25 Rennes 1-1 Paris Saint Germain

2023-10-08 Rennes 1-3 Paris Saint Germain

2023-03-19 Rennes 2-0 Paris Saint Germain

2023-01-15 Rennes 1-0 Paris Saint Germain

2022-02-11 Rennes 0-1 Paris Saint Germain

Full Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain head-to-head history →

Most Likely Scorelines

MOST LIKELY 2-1 6.7%

3-2 3.8%

3-1 3.7%

3-0 1.8%

4-1 1.5%

4-2 1.5%

4-3 1.1%

Full Market Breakdown

Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Same-game fold one leg per market, live prices

Under 4.5 goals 79% @1.36 Pinnacle
Maghnes Akliouche 1+ shots on target 85% @1.18 Bet365
Under 12.5 corners Smart 85% @1.23 Betano
Under 5.5 cards 83% @1.21 Betano
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 1+ shots on target 83% @1.20 Bet365

Combined 2.87 · £5 returns £14.33

Market singles 12 priced markets

Over 0.5 first half goals 85% @1.27 Betano
Ayanda Sishuba 1+ shots 85% @1.18 Bet365
Mousa Tamari 1+ shots 85% @1.18 Bet365
Maghnes Akliouche 1+ shots on target 85% @1.18 Bet365
Under 12.5 corners 85% @1.23 Betano
Over 7.5 corners 84% @1.26 Unibet
Over 2 cards 84% @1.19 Pinnacle
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 1+ shots on target 83% @1.20 Bet365
Over 1 second half goals 83% @1.21 Marathon Bet
Paris Saint Germain under 5.5 corners 83% @1.30 1xBet
Under 5.5 cards 83% @1.21 Betano
Under 2 first half goals 80% @1.33 Betano

Build a slip from these markets →

Build your own bet

Our Rennes v Paris Saint Germain builder

Our model's suggested selections (each one's a "leg"). Tap to build it, then place with your own bookmaker.

1 No Draw 83% @ 1.21
2 Over 2.5 Goals 72% @ 1.39
3 Both Teams to Score 61% @ 1.63

@2.74 £10 returns £27.44

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The record

69%

verified hit rate across 778 graded picks, every one logged before kick-off.

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Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain: FAQs

Who will win Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain?

Our model makes Rennes the favourite with a 59.8% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.

What are the best odds for Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain?

Best available odds: Rennes @ 1.50, Draw @ 4.40, Paris Saint Germain @ 5.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.

What time does Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?

Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 19:45 in the Ligue 1.

Will both teams score in Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain?

Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 55.7% probability.

Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain prediction and betting tips?

Our top prediction is Rennes to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.