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West Ham arrive as the price says they should win. The question is how comfortably.
A EFL Cup fixture between West Ham and Portsmouth. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. West Ham will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Portsmouth travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Our PickWest Ham to win at @1.53. Model probability 58% vs implied 65%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
West Ham create chances worth 1.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them -0.2 a game on the balance. Portsmouth create 1.3 (giving up 1.3) for a balance of 0.0. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.
Goals are a tough one to call here. West Ham are scoring 1.4 a game (1.4 of those at home) and Portsmouth manage 1.5 (1.5 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 63%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 52%.
Both sides keep clean sheets regularly. This could be a tight, low-block affair where the first goal is decisive.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | West Ham Win | @1.53 | 58.2% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.20 | 24.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Portsmouth Win | @5.50 | 17.4% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.62 | 51.5% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.15 | 48.5% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.53 | 63.1% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.45 | 36.9% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.17 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @5.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.25 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.57 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes West Ham the favourite with a 58.2% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: West Ham @ 1.53, Draw @ 4.20, Portsmouth @ 5.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
West Ham vs Portsmouth kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 15:00 in the EFL Cup.