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All eyes on Burnley as Notts County travel to face Burnley.
Burnley welcome Notts County in the EFL Cup. We've crunched the numbers. Here's our preview.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Burnley will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Notts County travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Our PickBurnley to win at @1.57. Model probability 55% vs implied 64%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
This league is new to our model. We have not yet built a verified record here, so treat this as an early read while we track it.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Burnley average 0.7 goals per game and Notts County manage 1.2. Combined that's just 1.9. We make it only 58% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 51%.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Burnley Win | @1.57 | 55.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.90 | 24.2% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Notts County Win | @5.00 | 20.4% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.67 | 50.8% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.10 | 49.2% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.70 | 58.3% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.20 | 41.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.20 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.40 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.62 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.45 | - | Bet365 |
The bookmakers make Burnley the favourite here. This league is new to our model, so we show the odds and an early read rather than a rated pick until we have built a verified record.
Best available odds: Burnley @ 1.57, Draw @ 3.90, Notts County @ 5.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Burnley vs Notts County kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 15:00 in the EFL Cup.