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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 26.8% | 32.3% | 5 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 48.4% | 51.3% | 3 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
A test of nerve as much as quality when Oldham Athletic welcome Port Vale.
Oldham Athletic welcome Port Vale in the League Two. We've crunched the numbers. Here's our preview.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Oldham Athletic will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Port Vale travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Too close to call with any conviction. Oldham Athletic edge it at 47% but a draw (27%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
Our model spots value here: Oldham Athletic to win at @2.60 (our model: 47%, bookmakers imply: 38%). A 9% edge over the market.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Oldham Athletic average 1.5 goals per game and Port Vale manage 0.9. Combined that's just 2.4. We make it only 48% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
Both teams score in 43% of Oldham Athletic's home games and 35% of Port Vale's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed. Oldham Athletic keep the other side out in 41% of games and Port Vale fail to score 52% of the time. there's a real chance one side keeps it tight at the back.
Port Vale prefer to keep things tight (0.9 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Oldham Athletic against this setup.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Oldham Athletic Win | @2.60 | 47.0% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.10 | 26.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Port Vale Win | @2.62 | 39.6% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.05 | 48.4% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.67 | 51.6% | William Hill |
Our model makes Oldham Athletic the favourite with a 47.0% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Oldham Athletic @ 2.60, Draw @ 3.10, Port Vale @ 2.62. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Oldham Athletic vs Port Vale kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 12:30 in the League Two.
Our top prediction is Oldham Athletic to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.