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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 26.8% | 32.3% | 5 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 46.4% | 51.3% | 5 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
A test of nerve as much as quality when Oldham Athletic welcome Port Vale.
A League Two fixture between Oldham Athletic and Port Vale. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Oldham Athletic will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Port Vale travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Too close to call with any conviction. Oldham Athletic edge it at 47% but a draw (27%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
Our model spots value here: Oldham Athletic to win at @2.60 (our model: 47%, bookmakers imply: 38%). A 9% edge over the market.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Oldham Athletic average 1.5 goals per game and Port Vale manage 0.9. Combined that's just 2.4. We make it only 46% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
Both teams score in 43% of Oldham Athletic's home games and 35% of Port Vale's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed. Oldham Athletic keep the other side out in 41% of games and Port Vale fail to score 52% of the time. there's a real chance one side keeps it tight at the back.
Port Vale prefer to keep things tight (0.9 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Oldham Athletic against this setup.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Oldham Athletic Win | @2.60 | 47.0% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.10 | 26.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Port Vale Win | @2.62 | 39.6% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.05 | 46.4% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.67 | 53.6% | William Hill |
Our model makes Oldham Athletic the favourite with a 47.0% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Oldham Athletic @ 2.60, Draw @ 3.10, Port Vale @ 2.62. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Oldham Athletic vs Port Vale kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 12:30 in the League Two.
Our top prediction is Oldham Athletic to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.